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3384 sats \ 51 comments \ @ek 31 Dec 2024 oracle

See #373338 for last year's predictions and #803987 for some discussions around them.

I'll add my predictions in the comments when I finished pulling them out of my ass.

297 sats \ 15 replies \ @WeAreAllSatoshi 31 Dec 2024

I predict that the number of stacker news items between this post and the previous years predictions post will be smaller than the number of stacker news items between this post and next years predictions post.

In other words, we’ll see an increase in stacker news items YoY

121 sats \ 8 replies \ @denlillaapan 1 Jan

Hm, being consistent (or perhaps hedging myself) I should make the opposite prediction here.

How do we go about making that bet?

100 sats \ 5 replies \ @mega_dreamer 1 Jan

I can create a market for it on https://beta.predyx.com

Please give me the concise market question and resolution criteria.

100 sats \ 4 replies \ @WeAreAllSatoshi 2 Jan

There will be more than 458,154 items (posts and comments combined) created on stacker news in 2025

200 sats \ 3 replies \ @ek OP 2 Jan

I think an absolute number will make it easier for stackers to keep track of progress and thus trade in the market. Here's the data:

first item in 2025 was #831754
table with items per year:

year	items
2021	6,910
2022	107,144
2023	252,614
2024	457,897

=> if SN reaches item number 1,289,651 in 2025, there have been as many items in 2025 as in 2024.

To have a nice question for the market and make it a little more exciting) I would add 25% of 450k as a buffer and round the number. So market question should be:

Will Stacker News reach item number 1,400,000 in 2025?

Resolution critera:

If Stacker News reaches item number 1,400,000 before 2026-01-01, the market resolves to yes, else no.

Sounds good?

1100 sats \ 1 reply \ @mega_dreamer 2 Jan

Thanks for framing the question. Here's the market for you: https://beta.predyx.com/market/stacker-news-hit-14m-items-in-2025

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @denlillaapan 2 Jan

done, and betted -- thank you!

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @denlillaapan 2 Jan

awesome! Thanks

200 sats \ 1 reply \ @ek OP 1 Jan

Ask @mega_dreamer if he wants to create a PM for this lol

100 sats \ 0 replies \ @WeAreAllSatoshi 1 Jan

PM = prediction market, for the uninitiated

110 sats \ 5 replies \ @Natalia 31 Dec 2024

deleted by author

69 sats \ 4 replies \ @WeAreAllSatoshi 31 Dec 2024

Perhaps more people joining because Bitcoin is being hyped, and then they want to farm sats

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Skipper 31 Dec 2024

or it's all bots and ai agents.

Dead Internet Theory

10 sats \ 2 replies \ @Natalia 31 Dec 2024

deleted by author

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @nichro 1 Jan

Wait why delete later?

10 sats \ 0 replies \ @WeAreAllSatoshi 1 Jan

Some stackers don’t like to leave a permanent trail

115 sats \ 2 replies \ @jakoyoh629 31 Dec 2024

SpaceX will announce a moon colony.

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @NovaRift 31 Dec 2024

This will happen? Their major focus is on Starlink this time.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @3a42879d5f 1 Jan

No, I think their major focus is to make life multiplanetary. Starlink is just how they are funding that goal.

274 sats \ 2 replies \ @ek OP 31 Dec 2024

Sentiment about how decentralized Nostr is or can stay will turn bearish
Bitcoin will reach at least $250k USD
SN will hire Everything Engineer #2
The war in Ukraine will continue
Assassination on Putin or coup d'état will be attempted
Coinbase will not get hacked (yet)
I will write a post on SN that stacks over 20k sats
Bitcoin core will not activate a soft-fork

21 sats \ 0 replies \ @ek OP 31 Dec 2024

Brian Armstrong will no longer be the CEO of Coinbase
A new company in the Nasdaq 100 will hold bitcoin on its balance sheet

44 sats \ 0 replies \ @Natalia 31 Dec 2024

deleted by author

26 sats \ 3 replies \ @Rsync25 31 Dec 2024

Trump can disappointed Bitcoiners not doing Strategy Bitcoin Reserve.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @denlillaapan 1 Jan

This is not a prediction: can makes this a nonsense sentence

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @lv99slacker 31 Dec 2024

I think he's going to do it, but he's just going to announce the stack that was seized.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Rsync25 31 Dec 2024

Everything is possible. Politics are master in to be liar

76 sats \ 4 replies \ @NovaRift 31 Dec 2024

My predictions are pretty fancy 😂

1.Household robots will handle chores like cleaning and cooking.

2.3D-printed buildings will become more common

3.Sam Altman announcing ChatGPT-5 and also with a complete structural change in Open AI.

4.Holographic calls will become a reality.

5.Lab grown meat will be widely available

6.AI tutors will provide personalized learning assistance

7.Virtual fitting rooms will allow customers to try on clothes digitally before making purchases (Amazon and Google are already doing it)

8.Remote work will become a permanent fixture.

9.BRICS nations will announce its own currency like Euro.

South Korea may see a huge revolution like protest.
Russia Ukraine war might come to end.
Palestine and Lebanon might completely collapse.
USA and Canada will announce something big on migration laws.
Authority of dollar Will be in threat.
Something big related to medicine will be announced like cure for Cancer.
CEO's of big companies might be fired.
The world will reach a consensus on online privacy-related laws and may adopt EU laws and enforce them on companies.
Many countries will create Bitcoin reserves.

I have more in my list.

33 sats \ 0 replies \ @NovaRift 31 Dec 2024

Twitter (now x.com) will announce its own email service.
Major Terrorist attacks and attempts on United States of America and Europe, which will lead USA to step in again and launch an aggressive Global war against terrorism.
China's gonna apply/force all its laws and policies from the mainland on Hong Kong.
The government of Taiwan may collapse due to the rising influence of China, or at the very least, they’re going to face challenges ahead.

0 sats \ 2 replies \ @denlillaapan 1 Jan

Ok, none of these are formatted as a proper predictions: They're formulated too vague or too unverifiable.

i.e. "authority of dollar will be in threat" should be dollar dominance in FX trade (or central bank balance sheets) falls below 80% (50%)

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @NovaRift 1 Jan

You're right, but I already mentioned that my predictions are a bit fanciful. Should I delete it?

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @denlillaapan 1 Jan

Nah, just reformulate them properly -- with numbers or events that could be falsifiable

38 sats \ 1 reply \ @stack_harder 31 Dec 2024

i preduct that bitcoin will contine to melt faces and buttcoiners will double down on being salty losers

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Scoresby 1 Jan

The salty tears of unfathomable sadness. Mm, so yummy and sweet!

44 sats \ 0 replies \ @Aardvark 31 Dec 2024

I think Trump will turn the existing US bitcoin into a reserve, but not add any more.

I think Bitcoin will hit ~200k

At least 1 more major US company will add bitcoin to its portfolio.

At least 1 more smaller country will follow El Salvadors bitcoin strategy.

81 sats \ 0 replies \ @grayruby 31 Dec 2024

The 49ers will return to greatness in the 2025 NFL season and finish with the number one overall seed in the NFC.

33 sats \ 0 replies \ @BitcoinIsTheFuture 31 Dec 2024

I become the best version of myself ever. Full stop!

21 sats \ 0 replies \ @cc7adb6a52 31 Dec 2024 freebie

ECB will be bankrupt. 😜

10 sats \ 0 replies \ @Miranda 31 Dec 2024

the best of all trends is that Stackers new grows and strengthens and becomes a great field of knowledge, exchange and why not, of sats cultivation for every person who knows the platform and is interested in it. everything else is secondary. sats for everyone.

300 sats \ 2 replies \ @030e0dca83 1 Jan

2024 prediction failed - #373731

I'm ready to make new ones.

Q1: one big european country implement Bitcoin standard

Q2: America create bitcoin strategic reserve and twitter add lightning network to their payment system

Q3: people who were afraid about "America may ban bitcoin", get its confidence and decide to acquire first 300k sats

Q4: we're getting ready to celebrate Christmas and New Year, sats become 12x valuable in $ terms

p.s. throughout the year war in my country should be ended

8 sats \ 1 reply \ @south_korea_ln 1 Jan

throughout the year war in my country should be ended

I truly hope so. Wish you the best~~

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @030e0dca83 1 Jan

21 million thanks to you

11 sats \ 1 reply \ @TheMorningStar 1 Jan

I predict Stacker News will at least 10x in active users.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @IamSINGLE 1 Jan

@remindme in 1 year

21 sats \ 0 replies \ @TheWildHustle 1 Jan

Nostr daily active users reach 40k

Bitcoin USD price hits 200k

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @itsTomekK 4h

Trump will pardon Ross Ulbricht... or will not?

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @sangekrypto 1 Jan

In my opinion, regarding predictions, maybe the price of Bitcoin will rise higher, and it will become more difficult to mine.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @cyphercosmo 1 Jan

As I said on #817511:

China finally takes Taiwan by force and consolidates itself as a technology super power.

BRICS announces it has stopped using the dollar and are now using each other's currencies for trade.

Trump's administration becomes desperate to save the dollar and starts to charge BRICS ridiculous tariffs, people become extremely divided.

At least 2 new countries will adopt Bitcoin as legal tender.

At least 1 country will add a Bitcoin fund to its treasury.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @aljaz 1 Jan

People stop putting their fate into political clowns and instead take ownership of their existence and fight for their freedom... lol who are we kidding its not happening

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Scoresby 1 Jan

SN item #1000000
US National Debt > $40 trillion
really big volcano eruption

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @3a42879d5f 1 Jan

$500K per bitcoin by Christmas 2025

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @OT 31 Dec 2024

The Bitcoin Strategic Reserve won't happen.