pull down to refresh
121 sats \ 8 replies \ @denlillaapan 1 Jan \ parent \ on: What are your predictions for 2025? oracle
Hm, being consistent (or perhaps hedging myself) I should make the opposite prediction here.
How do we go about making that bet?
I can create a market for it on https://beta.predyx.com
Please give me the concise market question and resolution criteria.
reply
There will be more than 458,154 items (posts and comments combined) created on stacker news in 2025
reply
I think an absolute number will make it easier for stackers to keep track of progress and thus trade in the market. Here's the data:
-
first item in 2025 was #831754
-
table with items per year:
| year | items |
|---|---|
| 2021 | 6,910 |
| 2022 | 107,144 |
| 2023 | 252,614 |
| 2024 | 457,897 |
=> if SN reaches item number 1,289,651 in 2025, there have been as many items in 2025 as in 2024.
To have a nice question for the market and make it a little more exciting) I would add 25% of 450k as a buffer and round the number. So market question should be:
Will Stacker News reach item number 1,400,000 in 2025?
Resolution critera:
If Stacker News reaches item number 1,400,000 before 2026-01-01, the market resolves to yes, else no.
Sounds good?
reply
Thanks for framing the question. Here's the market for you: https://beta.predyx.com/market/stacker-news-hit-14m-items-in-2025
reply
done, and betted -- thank you!
reply
awesome! Thanks
reply
Ask @mega_dreamer if he wants to create a PM for this lol
reply
PM = prediction market, for the uninitiated
reply