pull down to refresh
297 sats \ 15 replies \ @WeAreAllSatoshi 31 Dec 2024 \ on: What are your predictions for 2025? oracle
I predict that the number of stacker news items between this post and the previous years predictions post will be smaller than the number of stacker news items between this post and next years predictions post.
In other words, we’ll see an increase in stacker news items YoY
Hm, being consistent (or perhaps hedging myself) I should make the opposite prediction here.
How do we go about making that bet?
reply
I can create a market for it on https://beta.predyx.com
Please give me the concise market question and resolution criteria.
reply
There will be more than 458,154 items (posts and comments combined) created on stacker news in 2025
reply
I think an absolute number will make it easier for stackers to keep track of progress and thus trade in the market. Here's the data:
-
first item in 2025 was #831754
-
table with items per year:
| year | items |
|---|---|
| 2021 | 6,910 |
| 2022 | 107,144 |
| 2023 | 252,614 |
| 2024 | 457,897 |
=> if SN reaches item number 1,289,651 in 2025, there have been as many items in 2025 as in 2024.
To have a nice question for the market and make it a little more exciting) I would add 25% of 450k as a buffer and round the number. So market question should be:
Will Stacker News reach item number 1,400,000 in 2025?
Resolution critera:
If Stacker News reaches item number 1,400,000 before 2026-01-01, the market resolves to yes, else no.
Sounds good?
reply
Thanks for framing the question. Here's the market for you: https://beta.predyx.com/market/stacker-news-hit-14m-items-in-2025
reply
done, and betted -- thank you!
reply
awesome! Thanks
reply
Ask @mega_dreamer if he wants to create a PM for this lol
reply
PM = prediction market, for the uninitiated
reply
deleted by author
reply
Perhaps more people joining because Bitcoin is being hyped, and then they want to farm sats
reply
or it's all bots and ai agents.
Dead Internet Theory
reply
deleted by author