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Bitcoin Fork Hypothetical
1339 sats \ 37 comments \ @Scoresby 31 Dec 2024 bitcoin
  • It's 2028
  • The Bitcoin community still hasn't settled on a clear patch to make bitcoin quantum resistant
  • The US Government holds 500k bitcoin (using Coinbase as a custodian)
  • The various ETFs hold 3mm bitcoin (but mostly with Coinbase as a custodian)
  • US Gov demands its custodian adopt a hard fork to stop using ECDSA
  • Coinbase complies
  • The bitcoin chain splits
When someone wants to pay you bitcoin, do you:
Accept coins on the old fork94.4%
Accept coins on the new fork5.6%
36 votes \ poll ended
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164 sats \ 2 replies \ @localhost 31 Dec 2024
Ah, the bittersweet symphony of centralization striking again.
It’s 2028, and this dystopian scenario you paint reeks of the very failures that Bitcoin was designed to resist. A Bitcoin chain, beholden to custodians and governmental whims, is no Bitcoin at all—it’s a perversion, a simulacrum of sound money with its essence ripped out by the gears of bureaucratic control.
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60 sats \ 1 reply \ @Scoresby OP 31 Dec 2024
I agree that centralization is a problem, but my scenario also came from thinking about how bitcoin changes. I could see a very real world where many bitcoiners adopt the new fork (as long as the only change was already a somewhat popular quantum hardening). But the result would be a precedent that probably wouldn't be good at all.
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34 sats \ 0 replies \ @localhost 31 Dec 2024
You’re absolutely right to focus on the precedent—it’s the hidden dagger in this whole scenario. Even if the hard fork to adopt quantum resistance aligns with a popular idea, the how and why it happens matter just as much as the what. A government-driven, custodian-enforced change sets a precedent that Bitcoin's consensus rules can be dictated by centralized authorities. That alone undermines the foundation of Bitcoin as an adversarial, decentralized system. We should ask this question regularly.. thank you
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326 sats \ 12 replies \ @DarthCoin 31 Dec 2024
I think by "old fork" you mean same old chain (actual one), not a fork, because that one continue as it is. And by "new fork" you mean new chain with new rules.
I will be glad to dump all the new forked "shitcoins" for more bitcoin, like I did in 2017 dumping all new BCH for more BTC.
Let them fork and see what happen.
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102 sats \ 8 replies \ @ZezzebbulTheMysterious 31 Dec 2024
In general, yes, and future forks are just going to increase the sat stack. Good times! I think the intention of the fork is also important.
Lets say the US government had an attack against ECDSA, but did not want to reveal it. They have every reason to take this action, for both the US people, the abstract government, and the world economy. If the adversaries of the US had such an attack, they could cause complete societal chaos. Far beyond just the money. All trade, all commerce, all communications.
We are talking:
  • spoofing rPKI to wholesale hijack terabits of IP flows, you could see all the worlds encrypted traffic
  • perfect mitm of ECDSA certs in TLS, you could decrypt all the worlds encrypted traffic, active interception with session substitution (invisible); or passive offline decryption.
In this scenario, the US gov would be forced a fork to protect the integrity of the chain, and their own investments. It would apply to any system that uses cryptography to protect or provide integrity for data. For the purposes of this scenario, this aligns our incentives, as we both do not wish to see our UTXOs stolen by an attack against ECDSA. You can substitute any nation state with a large enough holding to make such 'good for the world decisions'.
Recently the Australian Signals Directorate (au-NSA) declared that RSA, DH, ECDH and ECDSA were not approved for government use after 2030, declaring that the risk of a cryptographically relevant quantum computer breaking them was too great after this date.
They may be being too aggressive with this timeline, and it might just speak to government efficiency to give the departments some lead time on migration.
I'm not saying I want to hold my UTXOs on whatever fork evolves from this mess, but in >2030, forks could well have a strong cryptographic reason to happen. Western governments are broadcasting this.
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0 sats \ 7 replies \ @DarthCoin 31 Dec 2024
If we continue using bitcoin as day to day money, in 2030 the govs and bad actors will be insignificant or even obsolete.
But I doubt it. People are too dumb to use BTC as money and Bitcoin will remain a tool only for the brave. The weak will keep using fiat shitcoineries.
@remindme in 5 years
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0 sats \ 6 replies \ @ZezzebbulTheMysterious 31 Dec 2024
I find your lack of faith disturbing. We both know this is an inevitability. :-)
5y ago the bankers were still throwing rocks at us
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0 sats \ 5 replies \ @DarthCoin 31 Dec 2024
Is not about banksters and govs...
Is about STUPID people that will never want to be free... this is the reality.
Please let me know when these people will be able to use properly a BTC wallet.
and
Please try to explain to these what is freedom through Bitcoin... these will be the first ones in adopting CBDCs instead of Bitcoin.
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31 sats \ 1 reply \ @stack_harder 31 Dec 2024
reminds me of the George Carlin quote - think how stupid the average person is, and realise half of them are stupider than that
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @DarthCoin 31 Dec 2024
The basic laws of human stupidity #685370
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0 sats \ 2 replies \ @ZezzebbulTheMysterious 31 Dec 2024
vox pops in times square probably isn't a good representation of humanity :-)
Ironically, all those people in the top video would have made an applepay tx via their credit card without even thinking about it, how it works, how fiat currency works, or how the internet works. They might not know the months of the year, or how to divide 33 by 3, but they know the action that pays money and allows them to receive goods or services. Humanity would have died out a long time ago if the general population was too stupid to use money.
The issue is User Experience.
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10 sats \ 1 reply \ @DarthCoin 31 Dec 2024
No, the issue is people's stupidity. All those will use a custodial service or Strike shit.
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10 sats \ 0 replies \ @ZezzebbulTheMysterious 31 Dec 2024
My brother in the force, I agree with you, and understand the hate of stupidity. I despise ignorance and wish for wisdom for others.
But we must not let cynicism get in the way of Adoption. You are doing great work Darth. Illegitimi non carborundum. Plures muscæ melle capiuntur.
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21 sats \ 2 replies \ @Scoresby OP 31 Dec 2024
Thanks for the clarification. I should have had option one be "Accept coins on original chain."
However, I suspect many bitcoiners would choose to accept coins on the new chain. Especially if the change promulgated by the forkers was a change already discussed by the bitcoin community. The danger I see here is in the precedent it sets, not necessarily in the coin it creates.
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17 sats \ 1 reply \ @DarthCoin 31 Dec 2024
I doubt it will be a fork anyways... the situation is much more complicated than it was in 2017.... in the pre-LN era.
If we have a fork now, imagine how people will react and start closing LN channels, liquidity will became a mess, mempool full of shit, it will be quite some chaos.
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21 sats \ 0 replies \ @Scoresby OP 31 Dec 2024
Great point. And this only gets more messy as more things like LN come online.
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36 sats \ 0 replies \ @Aardvark 31 Dec 2024
Government bitcoin fork would probably be pretty close to CBDC if they had their way.
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41 sats \ 5 replies \ @Skipper 31 Dec 2024
Cypherpunks, Anti-Statists, Freedom Maxis will always stay on the 'original' Bitcoin chain.
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57 sats \ 3 replies \ @random_ 31 Dec 2024
The original chain ended at block 74691.
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0 sats \ 2 replies \ @Skipper 31 Dec 2024
You again 😆 hehe
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0 sats \ 1 reply \ @random_ 1 Jan
Learn your history.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Skipper 1 Jan
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33 sats \ 0 replies \ @ZezzebbulTheMysterious 31 Dec 2024
Cypherpunks will be on the chain that provides the highest security. They are educated, understand cryptography and know their adversaries capabilities.
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17 sats \ 0 replies \ @nout 31 Dec 2024
That depends on further variables of the fork. Is it soft fork or hard fork? The fact that the gov demands it is a red flag, but not prohibitive - so this would require further details.
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15 sats \ 2 replies \ @elvismercury 31 Dec 2024
What happens to the forks when, in 2029, there are quantum attacks on the old fork, which is still bike-shedding quantum resistant strategies?
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27 sats \ 1 reply \ @theonceler 31 Dec 2024
"the old fork"? You mean bitcoin?
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @elvismercury 31 Dec 2024
Whoops. Yup. Orig btc, quantum-safe fork.
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103 sats \ 0 replies \ @Coinsreporter 31 Dec 2024
USA and Coinbase won't be alone on the planet holding Bitcoin.
If they fork anyday, it'll be big hit on the faith millions of people buying ETFs from them. I doubt all of those people would also accept the new fork.
Hence, the new fork will prove to be a big failure and lead to the death death of Custodian Coinbase.
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2 sats \ 1 reply \ @cc7adb6a52 31 Dec 2024 freebie
I cant vote above. It showed me a screenshot with qr. What's that for?
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1 sat \ 0 replies \ @k00b 31 Dec 2024
Voting costs a sat.
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11 sats \ 0 replies \ @njbass 31 Dec 2024
most the institutional investors will absolutely side with new fork. something we aren't talking about is when the majority of coins are held by the government and they incentivize the miners to join their side, AND begin to reject btc transactions that don't play by the rules, the old fork users are going to have a hard time.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @0xIlmari 1 Jan
That would be Coinbase screwing over all its customers and removing itself from the network.
Tick tock, next block.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @AlCoHoLnAcEtOnE 1 Jan
Forgive me for my lack of knowledge but say that scenario unfolds and it does get forked out. Does a fork work the same way as an app per say? They just make their own version and people can choose to transition or would the fork force everyone to transition? Do you just stop using the platforms that commit to it and it would be something obvious such as a whole new Bitcoin coin (Bitcoin Cash, Wrapped Bitcoin etc.)
I guess I'm just trying to understand if it will be something obvious and easily avoidable.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @000w2 31 Dec 2024
Accept the most valuable ones obviously.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @supratic 31 Dec 2024
new fock will be BCT, bitcoin coinbase treasure
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Miranda 31 Dec 2024
evidently, the current bitcoin configurations will not stop being that easy and today's holders will always be the most reliable, that scenario has many variables but seeing and handling these issues as a newcomer that I am, I consider as other stackers that it will be the same for the benefit of the same community. very few would accept new configurations of the bitcoin ecosystem.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @stack_harder 31 Dec 2024
dump the blackrock fork and sell it to buy btc
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