155 sats \ 9 replies \ @SimpleStacker OP 13 Nov \ parent \ on: Worst, most predictable failure that you've witnessed? AskSN
True... but for some reason I didn't think it was that predictable.
Maybe I was gaslit by the corpo media into thinking she was a stronger candidate than she was, or maybe I had too little faith that my fellow Americans could see through their gaslighting.
Also, all of the polling and prediction markets had her losing from well before she was even the candidate.
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Yet somehow Nate Silver had her at 50/50 days before the election.
I think the bump she got post-Biden-resignation, and the energy levels surrounding that really took me by surprise and I started to overestimate her
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Did Silver ever have her ahead, though, because I know he had Trump ahead at various points?
Nate Silver also got into a big argument with that other election forecaster, because he thought that guy was misinterpreting his own model in favor of Kamala.
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yeah for a few moments here and there
(judging by this graph, August and then again briefly in late Sept/early Oct)
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Ok, that's more than I would have thought. I still never bought it, because of how certain everyone was that Kamala would be a complete disaster and then her campaign did nothing to change that assessment.
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did you see the WSJ article about the French betting guy?
He called bs on the polls, thinking there was a clear anti-Trump sampling/social desirability bias of a few percentage points at least. So he went and commissioned his own goddamn polls.
Made a killing on the betting markets
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Is he the guy who asked people "Who do you think your neighbors are supporting?"
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Yes yes believe so
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