I mean, the Kamala campaign is pretty fresh. Somehow, people forgot that the conversation for like a year had been how the Democrats were going to get around her because everyone knew she was a train-wreck of a candidate.
True... but for some reason I didn't think it was that predictable.
Maybe I was gaslit by the corpo media into thinking she was a stronger candidate than she was, or maybe I had too little faith that my fellow Americans could see through their gaslighting.
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Also, all of the polling and prediction markets had her losing from well before she was even the candidate.
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Yet somehow Nate Silver had her at 50/50 days before the election.
I think the bump she got post-Biden-resignation, and the energy levels surrounding that really took me by surprise and I started to overestimate her
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Did Silver ever have her ahead, though, because I know he had Trump ahead at various points?
Nate Silver also got into a big argument with that other election forecaster, because he thought that guy was misinterpreting his own model in favor of Kamala.
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yeah for a few moments here and there
(judging by this graph, August and then again briefly in late Sept/early Oct)
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Ok, that's more than I would have thought. I still never bought it, because of how certain everyone was that Kamala would be a complete disaster and then her campaign did nothing to change that assessment.
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did you see the WSJ article about the French betting guy?
He called bs on the polls, thinking there was a clear anti-Trump sampling/social desirability bias of a few percentage points at least. So he went and commissioned his own goddamn polls.
Made a killing on the betting markets
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Is he the guy who asked people "Who do you think your neighbors are supporting?"