Did Silver ever have her ahead, though, because I know he had Trump ahead at various points?
Nate Silver also got into a big argument with that other election forecaster, because he thought that guy was misinterpreting his own model in favor of Kamala.
yeah for a few moments here and there
(judging by this graph, August and then again briefly in late Sept/early Oct)
reply
Ok, that's more than I would have thought. I still never bought it, because of how certain everyone was that Kamala would be a complete disaster and then her campaign did nothing to change that assessment.
reply
did you see the WSJ article about the French betting guy?
He called bs on the polls, thinking there was a clear anti-Trump sampling/social desirability bias of a few percentage points at least. So he went and commissioned his own goddamn polls.
Made a killing on the betting markets
reply
Is he the guy who asked people "Who do you think your neighbors are supporting?"
reply
Yes yes believe so
reply