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187 sats \ 7 replies \ @SimpleStacker OP 13 Nov \ parent \ on: Worst, most predictable failure that you've witnessed? AskSN
Yet somehow Nate Silver had her at 50/50 days before the election.
I think the bump she got post-Biden-resignation, and the energy levels surrounding that really took me by surprise and I started to overestimate her
Did Silver ever have her ahead, though, because I know he had Trump ahead at various points?
Nate Silver also got into a big argument with that other election forecaster, because he thought that guy was misinterpreting his own model in favor of Kamala.
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yeah for a few moments here and there
(judging by this graph, August and then again briefly in late Sept/early Oct)
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Ok, that's more than I would have thought. I still never bought it, because of how certain everyone was that Kamala would be a complete disaster and then her campaign did nothing to change that assessment.
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did you see the WSJ article about the French betting guy?
He called bs on the polls, thinking there was a clear anti-Trump sampling/social desirability bias of a few percentage points at least. So he went and commissioned his own goddamn polls.
Made a killing on the betting markets
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Is he the guy who asked people "Who do you think your neighbors are supporting?"
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Yes yes believe so
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