Peruvian Bull- Macro Writer AMA \ stacker news ~AMA

Peruvian Bull- Macro Writer AMA

12.9k sats \ 58 comments \ @peruvian_bull 26 Aug AMA

Hey everyone! I am Peruvian Bull, a writer and researcher covering everything macro and bitcoin related.

You might have seen me here:

SUBSTACK 👇 https://dollarendgame.substack.com

TWITTER: (103K followers) https://x.com/peruvian_bull

BOOK - The Dollar Endgame 👇 https://amzn.to/3yNvMe4

PODCASTS w/ @Princey21M

@Breedlove22 👇 https://fountain.fm/episode/PIsU9AidXS7nf5zU2DlZ

Let me know what questions you have!

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144 sats \ 2 replies \ @k00b 26 Aug

Does bitcoin winning depend on bitcoin improving or can it win even if stays just as it is?

94 sats \ 1 reply \ @peruvian_bull OP 26 Aug

It depends on what you mean by winning. If we're talking about bitcoin serving as the global bass layer for large payments in between banks or countries then bitcoin can serve that purpose as it is today. Remember the Fedwire system that underlies our modern financial system only settles 10,000 transaction today or less, bitcoin can handle this level of volume.

However, if we're talking about bitcoin becoming the global unit of account for every single transaction, then clearly we cannot be doing it on the base layer. what needs to happen then is we need scaling solutions like lightning or liquid to handle the micro transactions. an interesting fact about monetary economics is that the size and value of transactions is a pareto distribution, meaning that exponentially more micro payments are processed than large payments. In the US over 95% of transactions are for or less than $1000.

So if we can solve the micro transaction issue, then we solve most of the payment volume issue by default.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Bell_curve 26 Aug

95 percent are less than $1000

Great stat!

I rarely spend more than $1000. I guess rent or mortgage count as a monthly transaction. Sometimes my credit card payment. I buy one car per decade.

11 sats \ 0 replies \ @Trixie_K 27 Aug

Nice bitcoin is winning in depend on bitcoin and improve

45 sats \ 1 reply \ @Golu 26 Aug

Thanks for the AMA!

What are your thoughts about Chinese products in general?

21 sats \ 0 replies \ @peruvian_bull OP 26 Aug

I mean, generally they're cheap copycats of Western products because of weak IP laws in China and low amounts of creativity within the Chinese business culture.

However, they're obviously very cheap and can be produced plentifully which is needed for the third world.

34 sats \ 3 replies \ @IamSINGLE 26 Aug

What are your hobbies?

84 sats \ 2 replies \ @peruvian_bull OP 26 Aug

I like skiing, hiking, reading books (obviously macro but also history, philosophy and science), and working out.

I also really enjoy movies and video games, although I haven't had much time to indulge in either of those recently.

One thing I have been really getting interested in is researching CIA projects like MKULTRA, FIVESTAR, STARGATE, etc.

I have a lot of friends who have researched these conspiracy theories, and while there are always wild and manic people in these communities I have also met very intelligent and well grounded people who have found out a lot of interesting things that our government has done in the name of national security.

34 sats \ 1 reply \ @IamSINGLE 26 Aug

Thanks! The CIA stuff should be quite indulging. It won't let you pursue your easy hobbies like vieeo games.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @peruvian_bull OP 26 Aug

yeah, it's quickly consuming all my time :)

24 sats \ 1 reply \ @Golu 26 Aug

What's the best source to get a forecast about world economics for 50 years from now?

21 sats \ 0 replies \ @peruvian_bull OP 26 Aug

i don't think anyone knows what is going to happen 15 years from now, much less 50.

if you wanted to learn about cycles, then Kondratieff is a good place to start.

194 sats \ 2 replies \ @k00b 26 Aug

What's something you believe about bitcoin that no other bitcoiner believes?

2197 sats \ 1 reply \ @peruvian_bull OP 26 Aug

this is a really good question. difficult to answer, since i don't know what all other bitcoiners believe, even the most popular/influential ones.

the mind-blowing realization that really made bitcoin click for me was the epiphany that it solves Triffin's dilemma. Triffin's dilemma is an old paradox in macro economics was pointed out by an economist named Robert Triffn in the early 1960s in front of Congress, most of his work had been exploring the interlay of global reserve, currencies, and how they rise and fall, and he famously had predicted that the US dollar would lose reserve currency status because of the fundamental flaw in its design.

Essentially, global reserve currencies have demand outside of the issuer country, which creates a dilemma for the holder of the global reserve currency. They have to choose to either print and meet this demand or not. If they print, they must export more currency units than they import. They have to run trade deficits and print more than they otherwise would in order to keep the global economy running. If they don't do that, then he predicted that there would be a global deflationary crisis because there wouldn't be enough currency units going around to fund global trade be held as forex reserves or settle international payments.

However, this problem only exists for centrally issued currencies. Bitcoin completely breaks the dynamic by being a non-centrally issued currency, instead issued by a decentralized system, which means that it not only solves the dilemma it obviates the need for it ENTIRELY.

This makes bitcoin the perfect world reserve currency for the 21st-century and strips away the superpower hegemonic status of the USA or any other power who wants to rise and dominate the global financial system.

https://m.stacker.news/48334

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Bell_curve 26 Aug

Bretton Woods imposed a fixed exchange rate. How does the demand for dollars change when exchange rates float?

113 sats \ 4 replies \ @grayruby 26 Aug

I noticed in your twitter bio you have GME.

Are you seeing an awakening amongst the GME crowd that GME was a decent opening act but Bitcoin is the headliner?

152 sats \ 3 replies \ @peruvian_bull OP 26 Aug

Absolutely I think GME is what prompted a lot of people who were normies or just generally financially illiterate to really start thinking critically about our monetary system. The realization that the brokers had turned off the buy button in order to save short hedge funds and in reality save the entire system from imploding was mind-boggling, and raised a bunch of questions for people, including if they could even trust their bank.

A lot of reddit users then started following me down the rabbit hole of bitcoin content and I've privately gotten dozens if not hundreds of DM's saying that my work completely changed their mind around bitcoin and they have come around buying bitcoin and putting it in cold storage.

This sad reality is we don't really own our stocks, the brokers own them for us. The solution to that is to defund the traditional financial system, and put the power back in the hands of the people.

The GameStop saga is still not fully over and I think more and more people will be orange pill as a result of everything that unfolds.

21 sats \ 2 replies \ @grayruby 26 Aug

Thanks for the response. Glad to hear that the normies that got into GME have looked to learn more based on their experience. You are doing important work trying to educate folks.

40 sats \ 1 reply \ @Bell_curve 26 Aug

GME business model is outdated?

I don’t recommend buying unless your goal is to squeeze short sellers

21 sats \ 0 replies \ @grayruby 26 Aug

Yes totally agree which is why I think it is good that some GME fans are looking at Bitcoin now. It is a better way to express their frustration with the system.

102 sats \ 1 reply \ @k00b 26 Aug

Who is the smartest person you ever met?

21 sats \ 0 replies \ @peruvian_bull OP 26 Aug

There's a lot of Bitcoiners who I would put here, but I haven't met them unfotunately.

The smartest person I met IRL is probably Dylan LeClair. I had a really interesting discussion with him on the Japanese yen and the state of the Bank of Japan at the bitcoin conference last month and he clearly is extremely bright and has really good ideas on how to reproduce the saylor playbook in Japan, which is currently the G7 country that has gone farthest in debt creation, monetary experimentalism, and ZIRP.

31 sats \ 2 replies \ @BitcoinIsTheFuture 26 Aug

Thanks for sharing! Why’s the biggest risk right now to Bitcoin that you see and how do we get past it?

42 sats \ 1 reply \ @peruvian_bull OP 26 Aug

to biggest risk IMO is the shutting of the on/off ramps before we move to hyper-bitcoinization. this would essentially stop the rest of the world from bitcoinizing quickly and doom them to a death of 1000 cuts with their fiat holdings.

now, they would eventually be able to bitcoinize (get paid for services/products in bitcoin and then turn around and spend it) but this would require us bitcoiners spending our coins, which we won't want to do en masse until the price stabilizes.

so shutting of the on/off ramps is a huge risk and these gateways need to be guarded at all costs so we can retain our ability to port value out of the traditional financial system.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @BitcoinIsTheFuture 26 Aug

Got ya!

31 sats \ 1 reply \ @benwehrman 26 Aug

Based on the recent jockeying between all the international fiat currencies, which countries do you think are (A) The best places for dollar-holders to go right now for the most value for their buck and (B) Which ones do you predict to be the next ones to enter the top of that list in the coming years?

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Bell_curve 26 Aug

Switzerland and Japan I could be wrong

31 sats \ 1 reply \ @benwehrman 26 Aug

Wen Nostr X thread

92 sats \ 0 replies \ @peruvian_bull OP 26 Aug

Wen Nostr X thread

soon! i'll still have to learn more about NOSTR and how the backend works before i feel confident making a thread. the increasing censorship on Twitter/X has been worrying to me, and even though Elon is better at free speech, he is still human and able to be compromised. NOSTR is the future!

183 sats \ 1 reply \ @TheBrokenRuler 26 Aug

Great interviews recently with Brandon (Green Candles) & with Breedlove.

Has the launch of the ETFs changed the temperature in the room when speaking with people in tradfi? As bitcoiners, I think we suffer from being in an echo-chamber. Are the suits still saying the same stuff as they were saying post-FTX collapse, or have we made progress?

(Not that it really matters... tick tock next block)

252 sats \ 0 replies \ @peruvian_bull OP 26 Aug

Oh, it absolutely has. I talked to quite a few wealth managers, including some financial advisors who serve both normal retail and high net worth clients and what I found is that there was a lot of institutional resistance to bitcoin before the ETFs because it wasn't a "approved product by the SEC".

Now with the advent of the ETFS, the view towards bitcoin has changed quite a bit and it has seen as much more investable and a good alternative as a store of value.

The issue still remains that bitcoin is largely seen as a risk asset. Essentially most wealth managers think that it's a levered version of the NASDAQ or SPY, and so they might be willing to throw some money into it, but their view is that once we enter an economic crisis, bitcoin will collapse in value. I think the real red pill remains to be seen which is where tradfi realizes that bitcoin is both a risk on and risk off asset, basically it goes up, no matter what. That's when we get real FOMO...

11 sats \ 1 reply \ @nout 26 Aug

Where are bitcoiners in Lima? Are there any events? Do any shops or stores accept bitcoin?

21 sats \ 0 replies \ @peruvian_bull OP 26 Aug

Where are bitcoiners in Lima? Are there any events? Do any shops or stores accept bitcoin? yes, there are quite a few shops in Lima that accept bitcoin, and the number is growing slowly. A filmmaker crew called GetBased did a documentary in Peru about the bitcoin adoption of some of the small towns. I'm also part of a group chat for Peruvian bitcoiners, if you want to get more connected with community down there.

https://m.stacker.news/48336

10 sats \ 1 reply \ @Satoshi__Nakamoto 26 Aug

Going to listen

21 sats \ 0 replies \ @peruvian_bull OP 26 Aug

thank you! i also have podcasts with Breedlove and Daniel Prince

10 sats \ 2 replies \ @random_ 26 Aug

How are you preparing for the rate cut in September?

42 sats \ 1 reply \ @peruvian_bull OP 26 Aug

buying more bitcoin, and moving it to cold storage. I also bought call options on spy in my Fidelity broker account, I'll use any profit to make there to buy more bitcoin.

1 sat \ 0 replies \ @random_ 26 Aug

Do you expect a top in October and a bottom in March like during the GFC?

10 sats \ 2 replies \ @BlokchainB 26 Aug

You got $10k. What would you rather purchase?

A 30 year bond S19j pros hosted miners

Those are your options no cheating!

259 sats \ 1 reply \ @peruvian_bull OP 26 Aug

for sure the miners but I would probably have to fly down to Paraguay to set them up in a shop and take advantage of the cheap electricity down there. the other alternative is to go to Venezuela since their energy is subsidized by their government.

21 sats \ 0 replies \ @BlokchainB 26 Aug

Mah man!!

34 sats \ 3 replies \ @Coinsreporter 26 Aug

Did you ever go through any ancient Indian texts on macro economy?

Or,

Did you read any ancient Indian texts?

If yes, please tell me how you rank them?

80 sats \ 2 replies \ @peruvian_bull OP 26 Aug

I have not. I am getting interested in Hindu philosophy, and plan to read the Bhagavad Gita at some point.

Let me know if you know of any interesting texts I should check out!

321 sats \ 1 reply \ @Coinsreporter 26 Aug

Gita is a must read for everyone. The other book that might possibly suit your taste and job is Kautilya's Arthashartra ( Economics)

https://m.stacker.news/48342

53 sats \ 0 replies \ @TheMorningStar 26 Aug

Who else can be the bigger teacher than Kautilya!

Thank you so much for the suggestion. I'm gonna find it in the library tomorrow.

34 sats \ 2 replies \ @Coinsreporter 26 Aug

Do you believe whether Bitcoin can be used as a form of currency? If yes, why?

38 sats \ 1 reply \ @peruvian_bull OP 26 Aug

Absolutely but as I mentioned earlier, it's a matter of degree. The issue is bitcoin does not have enough block space to be the settlement and transaction layer for all transactions in the economy. However, as Nik Bhatia points out in layered money, bitcoin does not need to fulfill this role. It just needs to fulfill the role of base money and settlement and scaling solutions can be built on top of it to handle micro transactions and loans.

13 sats \ 0 replies \ @Coinsreporter 26 Aug

Thank you so much!

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Thereal 27 Aug

What is the likely impact of Bitcoin on the African economy?

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @SatsMate 27 Aug

I just this on my next to watch for Fountain. Thanks for sharing!

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @_b_o_n_e_s_ 27 Aug

just wanna say thanks for your videos, enjoy watching them ✌

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @purpurato 26 Aug

Where do you see the best business opportunities with bitcoin related products?

42 sats \ 0 replies \ @peruvian_bull OP 26 Aug

Where do you see the best business opportunities with bitcoin related products?

honestly, although "illegal", it would have to be non-KYC exchanges. If people can figure out how to build an effective on/off ramp with fiat that doesn't dox your identity i think that business would make millions of dollars a month. That being said, anyone who makes it will probably attract unwanted attention from authorities

0 sats \ 2 replies \ @sudocarlos 26 Aug

Why do you think recession in US is likely or unlikely in next 12 months?

63 sats \ 1 reply \ @peruvian_bull OP 26 Aug

If you consider the SAHM rule, then technically we are already in a recession. I think that it's gonna take more damage to the economy, though to force the authorities and power to admit that we're in a recession or that one is beginning.

The US has a unique economy compared to the rest of the world because we are the global reserve currency holder and therefore have constant investment inflows because dollar surpluses get recycled into our domestic bond and equity markets. That has given us a long leash to be fiscally irresponsible and not suffer the consequences immediately, but this won't last forever as I discuss in the dollar endgame.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @sudocarlos 26 Aug

You think you will live to see the end of the dollar as world reserve currency?

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @0ce30aae64 26 Aug freebie

Do you think if Trump is elected the democrats will let the markets crash 🤔. They been giving us fud numbers and they have been keeping the ponzi scheme going.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Octopus 27 Aug outlawed

stackers have outlawed this. turn on wild west mode in your /settings to see outlawed content.