It depends on what you mean by winning. If we're talking about bitcoin serving as the global bass layer for large payments in between banks or countries then bitcoin can serve that purpose as it is today. Remember the Fedwire system that underlies our modern financial system only settles 10,000 transaction today or less, bitcoin can handle this level of volume.

However, if we're talking about bitcoin becoming the global unit of account for every single transaction, then clearly we cannot be doing it on the base layer. what needs to happen then is we need scaling solutions like lightning or liquid to handle the micro transactions. an interesting fact about monetary economics is that the size and value of transactions is a pareto distribution, meaning that exponentially more micro payments are processed than large payments. In the US over 95% of transactions are for or less than $1000.

So if we can solve the micro transaction issue, then we solve most of the payment volume issue by default.