If you consider the SAHM rule, then technically we are already in a recession. I think that it's gonna take more damage to the economy, though to force the authorities and power to admit that we're in a recession or that one is beginning.

The US has a unique economy compared to the rest of the world because we are the global reserve currency holder and therefore have constant investment inflows because dollar surpluses get recycled into our domestic bond and equity markets. That has given us a long leash to be fiscally irresponsible and not suffer the consequences immediately, but this won't last forever as I discuss in the dollar endgame.