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Barca at 0.95 feels like free money, but it’s the classic steamroller trade tiny upside, total downside if disaster strikes. I get why @Undisc is cashing out at 0.97 locking in gains, avoiding tail risk. Probably still +EV, but I’m realizing that smart betting is more about survival than squeezing every last percent.
This is basically Nate Silver's entire book summarized in two sentences