Imma need some betting help here, expert friends.

(OK, OK, I realize the irony here that I read and reviewed Nate Silver's book (#735212) last year... but didn't get the betting element of things. Cool story, you made money arbitraging between platforms and having superior info and betting strategically to NOT reveal information—great, whatever.)

It's Predyx (@mega_dreamer) that has finally gotten me in the mindset of actually learning, and in recent days and weeks I've pestered Mr. Master @Undisciplined himself... over and over.

So, I had a contract for Barcelona winning La Liga... it was reasonably priced at .87, given that they were in the lead by four points with four games (=12 points) remaining... and were facing the only other team that could catch them. Because there were two contracts on the same outcome I traded around (arbitraged) my exposure (#974553) and felt like a genius.

After today's game, which Barca won 4-3, it's basically a done deal (it'd be a humongous upset if Barca lost all three remaining games while Real Madrid won all their games...), meaning that at 0.95 it's a 5%+ safe return in less than two weeks. But Master Undisc is selling his contracts, taking profits at .97. Fair enough, he rode that horse well and can move on to greener pastures... but like, why?! (I see he's still a top-4 owner, so whatevs.)

Isn't this free money...ish? I also realize that buying like a madman here would be a classic pennies-before-steamroller trade... 5% upside, 95% downside in the off-chance Real pulls off a miracle. (But those things do happen in sports so why not...)

P.S., somebody needs to start a "Betting" territory, eh (but I guess the Sports one is basically that...)... @Coinsreporter's degen series (#945628) DEFINITELY qualifies.

Then again, it would defeat the purpose, since we're all betting either against e/o or the house itself, eh. WHY TELL EM WHAT WE'RE UP TO?!