> Barca at 0.95 feels like free money, but it’s the classic steamroller trade tiny upside, total downside if disaster strikes. I get why @Undisc is cashing out at 0.97 locking in gains, avoiding tail risk. Probably still +EV, but I’m realizing that smart betting is more about survival than squeezing every last percent.

This is basically Nate Silver's _entire_ book summarized in two sentences

denlillaapan

econ

Betting Logic: Returns, Probabilities, Strategies

Barca at 0.95 feels like free money, but it’s the classic steamroller trade tiny upside, total downside if disaster strikes. I get why @Undisc is cashing out at 0.97 locking in gains, avoiding tail risk. Probably still +EV, but I’m realizing that smart betting is more about survival than squeezing every last percent.