I saw Lyn pouring some water on the idea that this debt rollover is a very big deal. Apparently, it’s almost all short term debt that’s not going to have a significant rate change.

I think it’s as simple as Trump not liking trade deficits.

My sense is that if “trade deficit” had been defined as exports > imports (which makes more sense), then he’d be celebrating our massive surpluses right now.

for some crazy high-stakes 4D chess... yes, this mastermind plan was always about something bigger!

This isn't my writing, rather it's from Tom Woods today, one of my favorite podcasters. I pasted the whole thing below. He's promoting a libertarian oriented debate on the tariffs (see the end).

Here's my favorite extract:

I just recorded the debate on the Trump tariffs that will run on the Tom Woods Show on Wednesday. You will find it interesting.

The pro side was represented by John Carney, my friend of 30 years, who heads up financial and business news for Breitbart. Before that, he was with the Wall Street Journal, a corporate attorney before that, and in 1995-96 he was research director for the Buchanan for president campaign.

The con side was represented by Gene Epstein, director of the Soho Forum and formerly economics and book review editor at Barron's, former senior economist at the New York Stock Exchange, and many other things.

Now here's something I dashed out on X today:

Even now I'm being told: "Watch this 23-minute video. It will explain Trump's tariff strategy."

I get that we all want to believe there's a grand strategy at work. I want the guy to succeed.

But he says he can't tolerate any trade deficit at all. Even Pat Buchanan never said that.

If that's what he's holding out for, we are in for not the "reindustrialization of America" but a prolonged, self-inflicted impoverishment that will punish rich and poor alike.

If he abandons this impossible (and undesirable) "no trade deficits with any country" scheme and declares victory, people will say: Woods, you were wrong! It worked out fine!

But it will have worked out fine in spite of the original rationale.

Everyone supporting the policy pits it as smart, savvy MAGA people who care about the working class against soulless globalists who sold out America.

I have nothing but contempt for the globalists whom MAGA rightly despises.

But not everyone who opposes the policy belongs to that camp, and the reason I oppose the policy is that it will hurt the working class.

"Look, we saved 100,000 jobs in steel!" We'll start hearing claims like that. But when we lose 800,000 jobs in industries that use steel as an input (because prices WILL go up domestically; that's the point of a tariff), nobody will understand where they went.

What are the drawbacks of the tariff policy? You'll know you're dealing with a serious opponent if he has the honesty to admit that some exist. These are taxes, after all, and sales taxes don't enrich people.

If instead you're told, "It only hurts the stock market, and that's not the economy," then you are speaking to an Elizabeth Warren clone and not a serious person.

Back to the point: if you're going to tell me that Trump's goal is zero tariffs, you are neglecting that (a) he obviously likes tariffs and has repeatedly made that clear; and (b) this is absolutely not what he is saying. He has told several countries the opposite.

John disputes much of this. He says: there is a plan, and it is reasonable.

Second, he concedes that it's not reasonable for Trump to demand no trade deficits with any country whatsoever. But he insists this is a case of Trump making a huge ask and later making a deal.

Third, he says Trump is genuinely trying to reduce trade barriers, including non-tariff barriers. John appears on TV quite often with Larry Kudlow, Trump's friend, and Kudlow absolutely insists that this is Trump's position.

Fourth, John makes the case that the numbers given for each country, which are not actually tariff rates but reflections of the U.S. trade deficit with those countries, are, despite the scoffing of the pundit class, in fact a reasonable proxy for tariff and non-tariff trade barriers erected by each country.

We're all doing our best to piece together what's going on here, and I feel sure that this debate will help clarify things for you. Expect it on Wednesday, and in the meantime be sure to subscribe to the Tom Woods Show (it's available on every platform, but here's Spotify just as an example):

Tom Woods

I wish I knew enough to even have a guess. All I'm seeing now is an absolute shit show, and all I can do is sit back, and hope my life doesn't get fucked because of it.

From what I've seen in the news and my layman's opinion, in theory the Trump administration is trying to stop the escalation of the debt by forcing a general brake on the entire world so that people can once again focus on the dollar. So much so that they tried to negotiate the imposed tariffs and they didn't accept it. They want the tariffs removed and even compensation for the time they imposed tariffs on American products, as if that were possible. Until the great reset happens, this is the closest we'll get to what seemed like its beginning.

There will never be order (financial) in this world as long as the great powers can accumulate more than 100% of GDP in the form of debt... The end of this (soon - in 20-25 years I think) will be a new "world order", as a result of which they will deliberately devalue money in order to be able to pay off their debt with "small change" (inflation, austerity measures, etc.). That is why it is (also) good to have an asset in your possession that have limited supply. Guess what it is :)

I think this option would be, it is something else. And I think everything is noise, in the end the letters are made of the table, the government must refinance the short -term debt, it will continue to spend, they want to depreciate the dollar and lower interest rates.

I see her clear on the horizon, stack every day as if there would be a tomorrow, because they will continue to expand the monetary mass and continue to depreciate the currency and inflate the assets.

And there is only an asset that interests me that they will absorb part of that liquidity with which the market will flood. 🍊⚡

The super rich are resetting markets to buy up assets inexpensively in dollar terms.

STACK SATS AND STAY HUMBLE

Trump is trying to create a legacy that people will look back on. It will either work or not. No matter what, he will be remembered.

America engineered the petrodollar by offering the Saudis preferential access to US Treasuries- everyone wanted them they were 'good as gold'. That was in the 1970s. Today the Saudis have joined the Chinese led mBridge trade payments protocol development group and BRICS. The USD reserve currency status is facing a real and existential threat from the fact that since the petrodollar was negotiated the US has lived beyond its means via the 'endless' seigniorage-credit possible for the global reserve currency issuer and while China has accumulated wealth via trade surpluses the US has accumulated debt via trade deficits. No politician wanted to deal with this but those who the US are now dependent upon to roll over its growing mountain of short term debt have insisted upon a radical austerity program. Trump is implementing one. The pain as always will be felt most by the poorest citizens, while Trump and his cronies will give themselves more tax cuts. The USA must rationalise its empire- the current debt servicing cost is greater than military expenditure. At the same time China has stopped buying US Treasuries and is instead investing in the infrastructure of empire- Belt and Road physical infrastructure - ports, rail, satellites, mining, refining, shipping and telecommunications networks...further strengthening its already undeniable and strategic productive economy advantage. Tertiary infrastructure- Banking and finance protocols and institutions. Dominance in trade has always logically led to if not gone hand in hand with dominance in trade payments/currency...and the military force to back it and protect strategic trade routes. China is reverse engineering the wests banking networks which were core to western imperialism, via Hong Kong (where they were initially imposed upon China), HSBC, CBDC/digital currency and building a new digital trade settlement protocol faster, stronger and more efficient than USD/SWIFTs slow, antiquated, expensive strategically fundamental legacy hegemony. Trump has no choice than to take these extreme measures which signal the end of the era of US exceptionalism and the beginning of an era of US isolationism, retreat and rationalisation in the face of China having already won the trade war and now moving logically and inevitably, to control the global trade payments system. Bitcoin will almost certainly have a significant role in this transition as a neutral safe haven analogous to how Swiss banks once served in Europe, but it is improbable that Bitcoin will emerge as the dominant monetary system unless the now dominant trading power chose to adopt it- which is unlikely given the diametrically opposed ethos of the two respective ideologies...CCP & Bitcoin. Bitcoin is more suited to a role in creating a shadow financial network such as Britain constructed during the decline of its empire. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=np_ylvc8Zj8