I see it that way too, he applied softer tariffs in countries that, even though they tax American products highly, still have a trade surplus. For example, Brazil, only 10%

I don't think it's a big deal if you are rolling short term to short term but the reason Yellen issued only short term paper was lack of demand for long term bonds and yields being too high. If the treasury wants more certainty and to roll a large portion of that debt to long term paper they need yields lower. Paying 4.5% on a 1 year is vastly different than paying 4.5% for 10 years.

I don't think it is the difference in previous to current yields that it is untenable, it is committing to those yields on longer term bonds. Especially if their plan is to strengthen the economy with tax cuts and deregulation in the latter part of the year.

I am borrowing some of this line of thinking from Luke Gromen but I think they are going to try to stick a perfect 10 landing here. I don't think it will work, Trump and crew don't look as graceful as Nadia Comaneci.

I think they do want to rebalance some trade and bring more economic activity back to the US and earn some revenue from what will eventually be much lower but persistent tariffs. They want the economy and stock market to take some medicine in the first half of the year to get rates down to reduce interest expense on the debt as much as possible. Meanwhile they want DOGE to cut as much fraud, waste, abuse as possible to lower discretionary gov spending. Once deficits are reduced enough that it looks impressive to the public (wow they cut a trillion dollars from the deficit) they can roll out their plan to stimulate the economy through tax cuts and deregulation but they need the medicine to be taken first.

I could be totally wrong but I think that's what they are trying to do and I don't think it will work. They will either get cold feet and capitulate or something significant will break and force them to capitulate.