I admire JP's work. I've learned lots from him, and his articles at AIER was what first made me want to publish with them waaaay back in the days.
He had this perfect mix of intricate knowledge of the money and financial system and a down-to-earth tone that could easily explain almost anything it seems.
I stopped reading him a while back, his incessant rants that bitcoin was elaborate gambling tool seemed beneath him—and definitely not worth my time.
Anyway, here he goes having a review of how his thoughts on our orange coin has developed.
Contrary to most economists or economically trained when they first meet this weird creature, he liked bitcoin at first. It was a digital, peer-to-peer, decentralized payment system. It could lower fees and remove country-barriers between banking systems. Grand!
There were two ways in which he was amenable to bitcoin:
- liking moneyness, he was happy to "welcome strange and alternative monies"
- Well-read in the free banking literature and private money, he was "already primed to be receptive to a stateless payments system."
My early thoughts on the topic were informed by having bought a few bitcoins in 2012 for the sake of experimentation, some of my earlier blog posts describing how I had played around with them. In 2013 I wrote about the first crop of bitcoin-denominated securities market (which I dabbled in)—predecessors to the ICO market of 2017. I also used my bitcoins to buy altcoins, including Litecoin, and in late 2013 wrote about my disastrous experience with Litecoin-denominated stock market speculation. In Long Chains of Monetary Barter I described using bitcoin as an exotic bridging currency for selling XRP, a new cryptocurrency that had just been airdropped into the world. I didn't notice it at the time, but in hindsight most of these were instances of bitcoin facilitating illegal activity, i.e. unregistered securities sales, which was an early use case for bitcoin.
Uh-hu:
Although Bitcoin excited me, I was also critical from the outset, and in later years my critical side would only grow, earning me a reputation among crypto fans as being a salty no-coiner.
Yup, still.
"What had tantalized me was Satoshi's vision of electronic cash, a revolutionary digital payments system. Not boring old speculation."
JP goes on to talk about how bitcoin doesn't have intrinsic value (#798342)... this should have been a red flag that he hadn't incorporated the insight in the private money/free banking literature, whether he read it or didn't.
My growing disillusionment
By 2014 or 2015, I no longer saw much hope for bitcoin as a mainstream payments system or generally-accepted medium-of-exchange. "For any medium of exchange to displace another as a means for buying stuff, users need come out ahead. And this isn't happening with bitcoin," I wrote in a 2015 post entitled Why bitcoin has failed to achieve liftoff as a medium of exchange, pointing to the many costs of making bitcoin payments, including commissions, setup costs, and the inconveniences of volatility.
Basically, by the time he had decided that bitcoin had no hope as payment media... it started to become that. Fast-forward a decade, and it's unbelievably, incredibly successful by the standards of 2015... yet JP never changed his solid verdict.
This SoV vs MoE debate is pretty boring by now. Definitely don't read in as much as he does to it:
showing that bitcoin users almost never used their bitcoins to make payments or transfers, preferring instead to hoard them. So the true believers pivoted and began to describe bitcoin as a store-of-value, or digital gold. It was a new narrative that glossed over Satoshi's dream of electronic cash while trying to salvage some monetary-ish parts of the story.
Instead, he concluded—at a time bitcoin was really coming into it and the BTC/USD price was telling him this was a major revolution—that all it was was glorified and digital blackjack tables:
Of the types of assets already in existence, bitcoin was not akin to gold, cash, or bank deposits. Rather, it was most similar to an age-old category of financial games and zero-sum bets that includes poker, lotteries, and roulette. The particular sub-branch of the financial game family that bitcoin belonged to was early-bird games, which contains pyramids, ponzis, and chain letters.
It's all gambling:
I was at odds with both sides. Each saw Bitcoin as transformative, one side for the good, the other for the bad. But I conceived of it as an innocuous gambling device, one that only seemed novel because it had been transplanted into a new kind of database technology, blockchains. We shouldn't ban bitcoin for the same reason that we've generally become more comfortable over the decades removing prohibitions on online gambling and sports betting.
Finally: bans would have been great, JP says, hinting to us once more that he never quite understood what it is or how it functions as money:1
Although I never wanted to ban Bitcoin, I can't help but wonder whether a prohibition wouldn't have been the better policy back in 2013 or 2014 given the new bitcoin-by-force path that advocates are pushing it towards. But it's probably too late for that
I do like this observation, but in contrast to most economists I don't believe it an insurmountable obstacle:
If an item has an unstable price, that militates against it becoming a widely used money. After all, the whole reason that people stockpile buffers of liquid instruments, or money, is that these buffers serve as a form of insurance against uncertainty. If an item's price isn't stable—which bitcoin isn't—it can't perform that role.
I know a few people like this, people who saw bitcoin clearly and truly at an early stage —but then, once it started to catch on and really grow into its own, bail (for pretty asinine reasons: Bitcoin Cash is faster; bitcoin is legalized gambling).
Footnotes
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"Bitcoin Cannot Be Banned" Parker Lewis, Gradually, Then Suddenly ↩