Somewhat inspired by a recent discussion of what does hyperbitcoinization look like, what would be signs of the opposite having happened? Feels like there's a wide range of possible definitions...
1156 sats \ 5 replies \ @elvismercury 10 Mar
Realistic signs that btc is failing:
- block reward / fee-rate make mining turn weird and intermittent and centralized
- for that reason or others, governments have big influence on mining, esp wrt censorship of naughty transactions
- supply centralizes vs decentralizes
- many existing UTXOs become dust
- exchanges are shut down en masse
These different aspects exist in complex relation w/ each other that are hard to game out without getting super detailed, but these are some of the axes of failure.
(It is inevitable that someone will bitch about how the last one is irrelevant bc 1 btc = 1 btc, but if you live amongst other humans in broader society, as I do, the ability to buy goods and services directly w/ btc, without the buyer / seller translating into or out of fiat, is minimal.
This may be the most material form of failure to people who aspire to use btc as money instead of as an object for religious veneration.)
reply
27 sats \ 3 replies \ @Fabs 10 Mar
Please expand on this in a super detailed way.
reply
100 sats \ 2 replies \ @elvismercury 10 Mar
Above my pay grade, at least unless I quit my job and gave myself wholly to it. But here's someone whose pay grade it falls under. I discussed a few related game-theoretic issues here and here.
reply
27 sats \ 1 reply \ @Fabs 10 Mar
Hmm, I think I've found the next book for my list, thanks to you!
I hope that knowing this makes you sleep extra-tight tonight, goodnight!
reply
0 sats \ 0 replies \ @elvismercury 10 Mar
Happy to be of service.
reply
0 sats \ 0 replies \ @030a29f333 OP 10 Mar
Lot of good things to think about there
reply
112 sats \ 7 replies \ @ama 10 Mar
Block time being so long that difficulty couldn't be adjusted down.
reply
0 sats \ 1 reply \ @030a29f333 OP 10 Mar
While this is ultimately a self regulating issue, i would be surprised if I never see an insanely long mining epoch (several months or more) in my life
reply
0 sats \ 0 replies \ @ama 10 Mar
Me too. It's the only thing that, if it happened, would make me say that Bitcoin was failing, not failed, since It could always recover, if more mining power was added...
reply
0 sats \ 4 replies \ @kilianbuhn 10 Mar
Nonsense. That can't happen. The lowest difficulty is easily calculateable on a normal computer. Even on a really shitty really old computer.
reply
100 sats \ 3 replies \ @ek 10 Mar freebie
They mean that too much hashrate goes offline at an unfortunate time. Difficulty adjustments only happen every 2016 blocks so if you're the last surviving miner after a mass exodus early in the new difficulty period, good luck mining all remaining blocks yourself. Also, there is a limit how much difficulty can adjust in a single period iirc.
reply
10 sats \ 1 reply \ @ama 10 Mar
The only one or one among a few, no need to be just one. :-)
reply
0 sats \ 0 replies \ @ek 10 Mar
Yes, it was just an extreme example to make it clear. You're right.
reply
27 sats \ 0 replies \ @Fabs 10 Mar
Yep, there's a given factor that the difficulty can be adjusted by per time.
reply
375 sats \ 1 reply \ @BlueSlime 10 Mar
Since Bitcoin is ultimately just software, there's a lot of situations where the network may fail temporarily, but could be fixed with a software upgrade.
I don't think those situations constitute failure. Tor makes changes to their protocol all the time in order to stay ahead of the game.
A true failure case would be:
a) ECDSA and all other digital signature schemes are broken, and there's no replacement.
b) All nation-states unite and restrict / ban all electronic devices. This is to kill all forms of PoW (bitcoin, monero, etc).
c) Apocalyptic event that sends us back to the stone age (can run nodes underground though).
d) A superpower rises up, eliminates all corruption period, and becomes so trustworthy that all commodities are abandoned for fiat.
The core concept of Bitcoin is just a distributed ledger of signed transactions and a PoW lottery for consensus on the transaction order.
That is a really tough thing to kill without wrecking the internet as we know it. And I don't think any other asset comes close in regards to competition. It's like comparing a filing cabinet to a computer.
reply
0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Fabs 10 Mar
"The core concept of Bitcoin is just a distributed ledger of signed transactions and a PoW lottery for consensus on the transaction order."
Love this.
reply
10 sats \ 2 replies \ @halalmoney 10 Mar
Something along the lines of this:
https://achimwarner.medium.com/bitcoin-is-dead-long-live-ibit-e420b99eb32e
reply
0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Enemy_of_the_state 10 Mar
Seems like a compelling argument. An ETF rugpull or loss of funds could fix this threat. A financial crisis could cause this. (GBTC was basically swimming naked.) Remaining ETF customers sell their ETFs and buy BTC.
reply
0 sats \ 0 replies \ @badabing 10 Mar
Oof, good luck with that one.
reply
0 sats \ 0 replies \ @kingzing131 12 Mar
For me the mining subsidiaries is definitely a concern, it's almost designed to be centralised. To decentralize mining in the future, imo you have to be willing to mine at a loss.
reply
0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Coinsreporter 11 Mar
These are only my personal thoughts. I don't see a possible 'Falling' for Bitcoin in near future. But I do believe that one day it might get a better version of itself. Don't take this version thing for any type of replacement. Just think about enhancements lke lightning or may be others are on the way.
On the way up one day it'll be the first choice money and if people are comparing this scenario for 'hyperinflation', that's not gonna happen. Bitcoin is too big to fall already. And suppose it gets to a level where it is the most popular form of money. Who the hell do you think gonna be talking about its fall?
reply
0 sats \ 0 replies \ @ramenbased 11 Mar
majority of mining in one jurisdiction. censoring (sanctions for example) financed with taxmoney as subsidy for compliance blocks. only minority of blocls mined censorship free.
biggest threat to bitcoin imo is the blind faith into some magical „incentive“ that is a free market spook.
reply
0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Lanter 11 Mar
I dont see BTC will fail i mean its goin' up instead 😜
reply
0 sats \ 2 replies \ @OT 10 Mar
It would look like what is happening today but with no hope.
reply
0 sats \ 1 reply \ @030a29f333 OP 10 Mar
Care to expand on that?
reply
0 sats \ 0 replies \ @OT 10 Mar
Well... Counties are starting to fight each other, governments are drowning in debt, people are struggling with inflation/debt, there are culture wars, propaganda, population issues. The list could go on.
If bitcoin went to zero, what would we have left? Gold? Property? Guns?
Bitcoin gives us a chance to peacefully escape some of these issues and transition to a new world.
It CANNOT fail!
reply
0 sats \ 1 reply \ @btcthinker 10 Mar
Governments no longer print money.
reply
0 sats \ 0 replies \ @030a29f333 OP 10 Mar
Lol
reply
0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Satoshis_Code 10 Mar
It won't.
🙃
reply
0 sats \ 0 replies \ @SaToSHiWoMaN 11 Mar outlawed
stackers have outlawed this. turn on wild west mode in your /settings to see outlawed content.
0 sats \ 0 replies \ @wopwopwopwop 10 Mar freebie
deleted by author