Realistic signs that btc is failing:
  • block reward / fee-rate make mining turn weird and intermittent and centralized
  • for that reason or others, governments have big influence on mining, esp wrt censorship of naughty transactions
  • supply centralizes vs decentralizes
  • many existing UTXOs become dust
  • exchanges are shut down en masse
These different aspects exist in complex relation w/ each other that are hard to game out without getting super detailed, but these are some of the axes of failure.
(It is inevitable that someone will bitch about how the last one is irrelevant bc 1 btc = 1 btc, but if you live amongst other humans in broader society, as I do, the ability to buy goods and services directly w/ btc, without the buyer / seller translating into or out of fiat, is minimal.
This may be the most material form of failure to people who aspire to use btc as money instead of as an object for religious veneration.)
27 sats \ 3 replies \ @Fabs 10 Mar
Please expand on this in a super detailed way.
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Above my pay grade, at least unless I quit my job and gave myself wholly to it. But here's someone whose pay grade it falls under. I discussed a few related game-theoretic issues here and here.
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27 sats \ 1 reply \ @Fabs 10 Mar
Hmm, I think I've found the next book for my list, thanks to you!
I hope that knowing this makes you sleep extra-tight tonight, goodnight!
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Happy to be of service.
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Lot of good things to think about there
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