Curious to gauge the opinion from all the humble Stackers...
  1. What are your assumptions for the economy & world at large?
  2. Do you have any predictions or expectations? Things you would like to see for you & your family and would not?
  3. Now let's talk about Bitcoin & Nostr. What sort of innovations will we see between now and Dec 2025?
Depending on responses, will aim to do a follow-up post in a years time and call-out those closest.
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Unemployment ^ Suspicions of central banks ^ Money supply ^ Proportion population getting poorer ^ Bitcoin >< tick-tock next block
The central banks will have to print at some point to protect the effects of inflation on ordinary people - it’s done too much damage and people savings are gone. Watch for the continued evolution of CBDCs. That’s all I got.
I don’t have a crystal ball… if I did i would have glass children.
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Try this one
@siggy47 bought one for his wife and he's playing all days with it 😂😂
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Hehe. Is it true the first one he bought she used for telling the weather? …. Was always winter untill they realised it was a snow globe.
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Imagine the discussion... around that snow ball Wife: honey, don't go to the PubKey, it will snow all day. Look at what is saying this crystal ball. Siggy: Oh yeah? But I have to meet the crazy bitcoiners at the pub....
He's slamming the door going out to the pub and thinking: damn it I need to change that stupid ball. Next day came home with a new ball.
Siggy: honey, here is a new shiny ball for you. Wife: oh so lovely! But how this ball will tell me how will be the weather tomorrow? Siggy: No, this one will tell you when the FED will die, it will predict the Bitcoin future and not that stupid weather. I am tired of snowing all days.
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂 PS. - @siggy47 please don't be mad of me, is just a joke.
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I was hoping to start a career as a psychic but gave it up…. couldn’t see any future in it.
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I love it. I needed the entertainment while waiting at my Dr office.
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Cuz it's never shiny enough 🤣
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Nice summary. So more pain = more protests = more printing = more dependency = more distortions & conditions.
Curious, do you personally think deflation or insane inflation is the final stage?
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I don’t think there can be deflation; there cannot be from an economic perspective. The system only works with continued inflation… and they do have the levers to control it to some extent. 2% maybe the target but 10% suits governments for short periods of time, 5% long term. They pay for the debt interest with our money after all!
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Here's my 2 sats:
  • Markets are going to tank for 6 months. One more big round of printing in developed markets to come in early 2024. Markets may then get a 6 month rest-bite, whereas Bitcoin will run for 12 months. Blackrock ETF will be a huge success before Bitcoin is blamed for the collapse of the entire system in Jan 2026. Leading to ever more draconian capital controls. Blackrock will somehow go bust with the collapse of all derivatives globally. Everyone will be relieved of their IOUs.
  • I now believe deflation in real terms (and assets) is inevitable. Inflation nominally, in food & commodities (necessities). Why? Because "they" know this system isn't sustainable - they are actively deconstructing it now and blaming each other.
  • Printing will come exclusively for infrastructure BUT only initially keeping people dependent upon the state. Deflation creates the conditions for global conflict, not inflation unless it is hyperinflation globally. MMT will fail spectacularly by start of 2027. Countries are soon to be incentivized to switch to having strong currencies. West blames East and vice versa, due to everything being digitized & vulnerable to attack.
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they have demonstrated already that they can keep the fiat zombie alive indefinitely, I dont expect a huge collapse at all, what we are seeing is an accelerated degradation of the standard of living and that has been ongoing since the 60s and officially admitted with the closing of the gold window in 71.
I hope people will switch to bitcoin en masse and force major governments to comply but it seems to be more likely there will be two very distinct classes of people, those who continue to take the entitlements from the state- and grow ever more dependent on them... and those (with bitcoin) who do not.
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  1. Same as today in 2023
  2. I do not like to predict something. Why? Because I am always right and I am afraid that will predict something bad for humanity. I like to observe more what is going on around me and get my own conclusions from my instincts. Yes, I expect a larger Bitcoin adoption after the halving. The news will bring Bitcoin into the ears of more people and start their interest.
  3. Not too much like we have today. But one trend is clear: NOSTR market is getting very powerful and we will see new things there. https://stacker.news/items/261758/
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Nice summary & fair play on predictions. I find it too easy to get carried away with clown world also.
  1. My economic predictions can be found above. TLDR: more chaos
  2. Hope for and expecting more local community-driven initiatives. I think we're going to start seeing a growth spurt of local circular economies. Especially given we may even see the internet vulnerable, to usher in Starlink. People will want less dependency online, not more. Many cell networks in the West are going to switch to using it end of this year 👀 Want to see more innovation in private mesh networking.
  3. Nostr is going to triple in almost all active metrics over the next 6 months. And will attract some of the AI developer community, at long last. This, as we see censorship on the rise in recent weeks. I think we're going to have Nostr identity and do away with Alby / browser extension logins, with mobile auth & profile sharing super simple via QR/NFC. Lightning wallets doing away with seed backups and using Nostr auth to bootstrap onboarding.
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expecting more local community-driven initiatives. I think we're going to start seeing a growth spurt of local circular economies
Good point. I hope so, but I still have some doubts on this, maybe from 2025 forward will see more this. People are still afraid. When they will remove that fear of Bitcoin, then maybe.
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I too believe it will start without Bitcoin initially. Value for value in the old-time sense, buying local eggs, groceries, helping neighbours build, supporting those around you.
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Great resource!
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Strong employment, but people's wages are getting crushed. We keep hearing of mass firing events in the tech sector, and strikes in other sectors.
Plenty of jobs but in practice they are jobs that are not paying a wage that keeps up with inflation enough to make basic needs in life. I don't currently know anyone who is not struggling. Have you ever been to a plasma donation lab? We are living in some version of a dystopia.
Economic conditions have changed. Companies cannot sacrifice profit for growth. Any company still with this mindset will not survive. Any company that couldn't make a profit in a free money economy because of the economics of their business are already doomed.
Federal reserve does not have the tools to deal with inflation correctly. Congress won't budge on expanding their tools. Instead they blame the other political party. To their faces. With the Fed in the same room. On CSPAN.
I believe the economic condition for the average person in day to day life will continue to deteriorate, but I also believe it has a lot of room to do so. Peoples tolerance shift to accommodate the discomfort. If mass firings that began in tech last year and through early summer was a canary in a coal mine, that should start to play out soon and job growth will evaporate overnight.
Bitcoin on-chain indicates only hodlers are buying, and they are taking more off the market than can be supplied into the market. Eventually this will manifest in a physical reality of a price move in extremely dramatic fashion. 30-60K shouldn't be an area we hang in for very long at all. Until we blow straight past 30K without blinking I am not getting excited just yet.
I am hopeful a good Nostr client that attracts journalists and activists hits the scene. The best Nostr client will be the one that isn't marketing itself as a Nostr client.
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Free trade and travel increasingly restricted. Nation states, sensing their irrelevance lash out against their populace as well as "outsiders".
Soverign individuals will build cyberstates that are actually able to protect people from the wrath of nationstates using cryptography and anonymity instead of imaginary borders and deadly weapons.
There will be enormous opportunities to build successful businesses as monopolies and trusts are busted and regulations are lifted.
Tick tock next block timechain don't stop
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I expect to take care of my family, stack sats and engage with the Bitcoin community.
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Stay groovy, 'ruby
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I'd like to see some of the development in Bitcoin coming to fruition. Lightning network growth 10k BTC, pay join implemented on a bunch of wallets, & OP_VAULT (but that might be too optimistic.
In Normy land I'll predict interest rates to stay high, a rise in crime, a rise in censorship & more people being onboarded to bitcoin.
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I think we go into an easing cycle mid-2024 and interest rates get cut, I don't know how long people can keep up with the pain, I try to keep up with my local economic data and we have record YOY home and auto defaults, and record high unemployment
For Bitcoin, I kinda wanna see CTV go ahead before the 2025 bull run, would like to see how it can be used to improve non-custodial LN, Build Ark and also make on-chain better to use for the average person
As for Nostr I don't think it needs much more other than improving UX, speed and reliability, I think going through its first bull market will be quite the test as people flock into the Bitcoin market again
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  1. Consumer debt is up. Property taxes will start rising, commensurate to higher housing values. Inflation will continue to disproportionately punish the working poor. Defaults on will rise. The government will continue to bail out and print.
  2. A couple more countries will adopt Bitcoin as legal tender. ETFs will start things off and then we'll see some additional financial instruments including Bitcoin: maybe insurance etc.
  3. I think the 2023 iteration of the lightning network will be unrecognizable in 2025.
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Same shit
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😄👍
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The bullrun starts in 2024 and ends in 2025
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Not to mention CBDC rollouts in many countries..
Hopefully Nostr will take over social media as a whole 1 Bitcoin will still be worth 1 Bitcoin, while Fiat currency will continue to plummet, as they have been doing historically
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A dumber world full of digital IDs and more ridiculous restrictions. Controlled wars. More human degradation. Food will suck even more. Poverty will definitely grow. Humans caring even less for eachother... and like others already said, I don't have a crystal ball either lol
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  • USD collapse
  • FIntech
  • CBDC
  • Electric cars causing electricity prices to increase
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0 sats \ 1 reply \ @OC 23 Sep
Mass chaos, complete financial collapse, a world changing event bigger than 9/11 and eventually the liberation of the human race
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Woah. When you put it like that... 😬
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deleted by author
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