Nice summary. So more pain = more protests = more printing = more dependency = more distortions & conditions.
Curious, do you personally think deflation or insane inflation is the final stage?
I don’t think there can be deflation; there cannot be from an economic perspective. The system only works with continued inflation… and they do have the levers to control it to some extent. 2% maybe the target but 10% suits governments for short periods of time, 5% long term. They pay for the debt interest with our money after all!
Here's my 2 sats:
  • Markets are going to tank for 6 months. One more big round of printing in developed markets to come in early 2024. Markets may then get a 6 month rest-bite, whereas Bitcoin will run for 12 months. Blackrock ETF will be a huge success before Bitcoin is blamed for the collapse of the entire system in Jan 2026. Leading to ever more draconian capital controls. Blackrock will somehow go bust with the collapse of all derivatives globally. Everyone will be relieved of their IOUs.
  • I now believe deflation in real terms (and assets) is inevitable. Inflation nominally, in food & commodities (necessities). Why? Because "they" know this system isn't sustainable - they are actively deconstructing it now and blaming each other.
  • Printing will come exclusively for infrastructure BUT only initially keeping people dependent upon the state. Deflation creates the conditions for global conflict, not inflation unless it is hyperinflation globally. MMT will fail spectacularly by start of 2027. Countries are soon to be incentivized to switch to having strong currencies. West blames East and vice versa, due to everything being digitized & vulnerable to attack.
they have demonstrated already that they can keep the fiat zombie alive indefinitely, I dont expect a huge collapse at all, what we are seeing is an accelerated degradation of the standard of living and that has been ongoing since the 60s and officially admitted with the closing of the gold window in 71.
I hope people will switch to bitcoin en masse and force major governments to comply but it seems to be more likely there will be two very distinct classes of people, those who continue to take the entitlements from the state- and grow ever more dependent on them... and those (with bitcoin) who do not.