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Yes 100% its just a problematic thing to deal with. We don't want any undue attention at such an early stage of PREDYX. There are some good use-cases but policing it will be a painful. We are going to update our TOS soon:
Death-Related Markets
We do not allow markets that directly speculate on the death of any individual.
Limited exceptions may be permitted for:
- Markets relating to life expectancy based on publicly known illness or serious health conditions.
- Markets relating to assassination attempts, provided the outcome is tied to the occurrence of the event and not to the individual’s death itself.
All other death-related markets are strictly prohibited. (edited)
I think there was a market for whether Trump would "make it" to July 2026, or to the end of his second term. That's a bit broader than death, but death is the most likely reason why he wouldn't "make it". Would that fall under the category of "death market"?
yes 100% correct, broader reasons ok.
Death due to health/sickness ok - but not like "Will X die before 2027?"
It seems like the problematic cases are all extrajudicial homicides, right?
Are there incentive issues with death markets that specifically exclude murder/assassination/manslaughter/etc? I get that there are still PR issues with such markets.
I'm not sure if you know, but the "Death-Markets" have been illegally running in the underworld markets for 1000 years. Its deemed illegal by most governments.
I also thinks some prediction market got shutdown in 2014/16 due to same issues.
Are there incentive issues with death markets that specifically exclude murder/assassination/manslaughter/etc?
yes - one can make a bet on YES and eliminate that person. Its same like a hit job. Outsource we don't have that volume or liquidity yet, but there is abundant volume and liquidity. Bad actor can take advantage of that.
If homicide is excluded in the resolution criteria, then there's no payout for killing the person.
We've got a 20 year policy. I tell my wife that if she wants to cash out she'd better do it soon.
Easy fix for that: just put an irresponsible amount of your household finances on the No.
Now she's incentivized to keep that from happening.
Another large position on "RubyGray is cleared of all wrongdoing in the demise of GrayRuby."
There's a ton of demand for that information but it does create slightly problematic incentives.