Fine, maybe the "suspiciously" here is just because all bitcoin has done in the last 3 months is FALL -- while every other macro asset has enjoyed all-time highs, gold rallying into incredible levels etc. Some monetary revolution, alright.
But isn't it weird that every time Strategy reports GIGANTIC purchases, bitcoin falls and/or its corn is acquired at way-above-market price?But isn't it weird that every time Strategy reports GIGANTIC purchases, bitcoin falls and/or its corn is acquired at way-above-market price?
It's not the first time I've noticed this. Weird phenomenon (you'd think a massive whale buyer buying is good for the asset they're buying...?)
You might as well have said "Strategy burns 131 million dollars" -- which, I guess, is a cool position to be in?
Has anybody tried to counter-trade Strategy, i.e., sell around/before they purchase/announce purchases?
Altogether pathetic; I understand nothing about markets and finance and econ. I should just become a self-sufficient farmer and ignore this whole monetary/finance business.
It's a DCA strategy price doesn't matter. They "generate" cash, they buy. Probably a lot of short term traders fade his buys because they know that whale demand isn't coming back into the market for x amount of days.
Bitcoin has a number of headwinds right now.
This is a lot to battle all at once but on the bright side people's attention spans are quite short so perception can change pretty quick. Not saying it will, but it can.
This is the part that boggles my mind.
All of this jargon about "blockchain"... the entire reason for the complicated apparatus is that Satoshi was trying to solve the trust issue of decentralized money.
If we're just gonna use centralized services we don't need any of it.
It really mystifies me when people talk about "blockchain" and "tokenization" in the context of centralized services. Perhaps all they're referring to is inter-operability standards between banks?!
I don't get it. Everything has to be summed up by buzz words these days.
that seems believable.
Re: silver. I had a dream I pawned (or sold? not sure) my silver neckless last night!
#1282798
I will probably sell some more silver soon.
Why not become a self-sufficient farmer and continue talking out of your butt about markets and finance and econ?
I meant in the more extreme version of: use no money, ignore the financial system altogether
the mythical barter system!!!
Indeed.
I have some friends that talk about barter being somehow more moral than money. They always regret saying this to me.
Does the market ALWAYS dump when Strategy buys? I remember in 2021, 2022 and even 2023 it used to go up after MicroStrategy bought.
yeah, probably. I wasn't paying attention to Strategy then the way I am right now. No idea if this hunch of mine replicates even this year, let alone a few years ago when they were smaller players
I'm sure we can train AI to detect a pattern and money moves in the treasury/institutional MSTR STRC STRF STRK etc. type shares apart from the other biggies like IREN, MARA, and the BlackRock IBIT type funds to figure out what is really going on. Is there a net inflow of BTC into the "system" but a simultaneous net outflow of dollars in the Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) space that is causing the market to dump when it should in fact pump. MSTR became heavily "institutionalized" only mid-2025. Maybe the market is behind oddly ever since, and not previously during 2021-23 purchases when it was just MSTR buying. There is just too much data for us to analyze on our own, but AI can help. AI can read all the 13-F and 13-G filings that the funds are required to make with the SEC in one swoop, but it would take us a week to pore through. Or a seasoned TradFi pro who delves in DATs and has been a long-time bitcoiner.
OK, Chat
The recent price action in Bitcoin (BTC), which saw a "dump" to the $88,000–$90,000 range despite Michael Saylor’s Strategy Inc. (MSTR) adding 13,627 BTC ($1.25 billion) earlier this month, is a classic example of how institutional market mechanics can decouple from simple "supply and demand" logic.
Based on current data from January 2026, here is the "big picture" analysis of why the price dropped while Michael Saylor was buying.
1. The "Hedging" Paradox (MSTR’s ATM Program)1. The "Hedging" Paradox (MSTR’s ATM Program)
Michael Saylor’s latest purchase was funded largely through At-The-Market (ATM) sales of MSTR Class A common stock. This creates a specific downward pressure:
2. The 13-F and 13-G Signal (The "Exit" of Early Allocators)2. The 13-F and 13-G Signal (The "Exit" of Early Allocators)
The Jan 20, 2026, 13-F filings (covering the period ending Dec 31, 2025) reveal a significant shift in the DAT (Digital Asset Treasury) space:
3. ETF "USD Leakage" vs. BTC Inflow3. ETF "USD Leakage" vs. BTC Inflow
Your theory about "USD leaving the system" is supported by the January 16–20 ETF data.
4. Valuation Disconnect (The mNAV Problem)4. Valuation Disconnect (The mNAV Problem)
As of mid-January 2026, Strategy Inc. (MSTR) has been trading at a market-cap-to-NAV (mNAV) of roughly 0.81.
Big Picture SummaryBig Picture Summary
The Verdict: BTC is currently being used as a liquidity sponge. Michael Saylor is absorbing supply, but "System USD" is being pulled out by institutional players who are rebalancing their 2026 portfolios and exiting the "proxy" trades (ETFs and MSTR) that reached saturation in late 2025.
Would you like me to look into the specific 13-F filings of the top 5 Bitcoin ETF holders to see which major banks are currently reducing their exposure?
Response: https://gemini.google.com/app/327b2d6b3551fd64
When you figure out how to counter-trade before Strategy's announcements, let me know
If I do, and it's as profitable as it seems, I definitely won't tell you.
(I'll allow you to invest in my new hedge fund, though, Den Capital)
I'll line up to be your first investor
Good timing, a good friend, who unfortunately likes to shitcoin, tried to convince me today to get into MSTR. His take is that because currently it's trading at (or below?) Bitcoin value it's a good deal. Taking off the maxi-hat, why is this a good/bad idea?
It may depend on how the different MSTR securities are structured, but you don't actually own any bitcoin if you buy MSTR, and general shareholders are gonna be the last in line to get any bitcoin back in the event that things go south. They're generally gonna have to pay back creditors, vendors, and maybe even employees, before shareholders get any of what remains.
Right, they are selling lots of derivative stuff these days now, no?
That friend really bought into the idea that big crashes are now a thing of the past with the institutional interest. Probably watched too much Saylor propaganda~~
Overall, hard for me to see an upside to it all, even if I were to want to play Wallstreet games.
that's a weird definitional question. No, they're selling a lot of preferred shares (mostly STRC, which is basically a high-yield bank account at this point).
if you see an upside to bitcoin, there ought to be an upside to MSTR. (Basically the best steelman I can make)
Good idea:
bad idea:
In a nutshell, that's basically the Dummies summary of my long read (#1081555)
In my ignorance, I assume that these announcements of Strategy's are marketing announcements.
The fact that Saylor is so darn loud about it "oh man, I'm really gonna buy! You've done it this time, now I'm really, really gonna buy some bitcoin! Big buy coming on Monday, boys!" seems to support this line of thinking.
I don't know what the rules around this are, but when they announce that they've bought bitcoin, couldn't it refer to any time since the last buy was made public?
I would believe that take if it wasn't accompanied by an average price point. I can observe when in recent times we had e.g., 95k. And his averages always seem to be above the (current) market price.
Yes, like you say it's an average over a week or two