If so, I think we're in agreement now. That's another thing @Undisciplined will appreciate:  All this equivalency only works if you assume a risk-neutral individual with unlimited liquidity.  If liquidity is an issue, then differences in how much you're fronting vs getting at the back end actually matters.

SimpleStacker

Sure in the end it might all work out the same but I would rather post less sats and have more to bet with than post more and hope to get them back at resolution if my probabilities weren't wrong or I don't hedge it properly.