The 2026 Winter Olympics are less than a month away.
Which nation will win the most gold medals?
https://beta.predyx.com/market/2026-winter-olympics-country-with-the-most-gold-medals-1767810180
Have your say with sats!
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The 2026 Winter Olympics are less than a month away.
Which nation will win the most gold medals?
https://beta.predyx.com/market/2026-winter-olympics-country-with-the-most-gold-medals-1767810180
Have your say with sats!
I'm wondering, why do market creators make a market then immediately buy shares? Can't you set the starting probabilities?
You can but then you need to post more sats as the potential global loss increases.
So I would rather buy some shares and potentially win some sats back than post a bunch more and get nothing in return.
Yes, this is the best strategy. You can obviously get back your investment if you want to when you see some profits. I've used the same for NFC. If I had gone to set the initial odds, it would've cost me about three times the sats I had invested there. And it still is twice the liquidity as seen
That's strange. The LMSR is a pretty well-studied and theoretically sound algorithm, I wouldn't think it's so easy to game it like that. Either you guys are wrong, or I'm wrong, ore Predyx's WCL math is off and you guys are being misled about the costs/benefits of the two options.
Damn, this makes me want to go back and study the math more, from the market creator side of things.
I think it’s about the difference in upfront costs rather than an issue with the algorithm.
Starting with even odds costs less at creation. When we then buy shares to make the odds realistic, we end up spending the same but we have shares that can be sold.
Are you sure? I don't know how market creation works since I've never created one, but do you really just pay an upfront cost that Predyx eats? Isn't it something like earnest money to make sure you have enough to pay out to market participants, that you get back if people guess wrong? If the latter, my suspicion is that it works out the same, and the issue is with a way that Predyx reports things to make it feel otherwise.
I could be totally wrong of course.
Guess I should just investigate. F*** me, another rabbit hole I don't really have time for.
You get sats back after the market resolves. You just need to post more sats to cover potential loss if you want to set the probabilities.
That's what I'm saying. I suspect it'll even out either way.
💯
They cost less because your loss on all outcomes even outs. But if you make one outcome higher, it means you are putting your sats on it. So why not put the sats where you can use them at any time. Even if you're losing, you'll end up with saving some of them.
I didn't say it's gaming. I meant when the market moves unexpectedly higher or lower, you can either buy low, or sell high on these low liquidity markets and balance even the markets back. But this also gives you opportunity to get your investment back.
There's nothing wrong in either yours or the maths of Predyx.
"Gaming" maybe isn't the right word. AFAIK, the function is designed in such a way that different methods of arriving at the same probabilities should be cost invariant. Thus, setting the initial probabilities shouldn't be different than buying shares to move the market to the probabilities you want to initialize with.
I agree that creators can and should participate in their own markets when the probabilities go far off what they expect.
On prediction markets whatever I've come to know so far is that whoever is upfront or quick to jump in gains more. My maths is weak but I can prejudice well which outcome is gonna get more inflow unnecessarily. Like @grayruby has been doing it all along the NFL season with 49ers keeping their odds at least as high as 9-10%, (the same was there with a few other teams) I just knew that I'd get a chance to buy them low in such a long tournament and kept buying the cheaper shares of others, even if I sell all of them now, I'll at least have 100% profit to my investment — or I can buy the shares once higher priced teams when lowered and be quick if I anticipate or come to know any movement.
So, yeah if it's a game it's fun. You just need to be on your haunches to grab the opportunities.
Yes, I constantly find myself checking for arbitrage opportunities, just for the fun of it. I'm usually to slow and someone else has jumped on it, but I've been able to grab a few.
Somalia, the winters in Minnesota are perfect conditions for training
Haha
Is this even a question
It’s USA of course!
Norway seems to be the odds on favourite but I did throw some sats on USA as well. It is hard to compete with Norway because there are about a thousand different skiing events which they dominate. Haha
Norway is great at winter sports
Team USA is being hyped this year as very strong
The challenge for team usa will be competing in Italy, which tends to favor European athletes
Canada
That would be nice but unlikely.