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"Gaming" maybe isn't the right word. AFAIK, the function is designed in such a way that different methods of arriving at the same probabilities should be cost invariant. Thus, setting the initial probabilities shouldn't be different than buying shares to move the market to the probabilities you want to initialize with.
I agree that creators can and should participate in their own markets when the probabilities go far off what they expect.
On prediction markets whatever I've come to know so far is that whoever is upfront or quick to jump in gains more. My maths is weak but I can prejudice well which outcome is gonna get more inflow unnecessarily. Like @grayruby has been doing it all along the NFL season with 49ers keeping their odds at least as high as 9-10%, (the same was there with a few other teams) I just knew that I'd get a chance to buy them low in such a long tournament and kept buying the cheaper shares of others, even if I sell all of them now, I'll at least have 100% profit to my investment — or I can buy the shares once higher priced teams when lowered and be quick if I anticipate or come to know any movement.
So, yeah if it's a game it's fun. You just need to be on your haunches to grab the opportunities.
Yes, I constantly find myself checking for arbitrage opportunities, just for the fun of it. I'm usually to slow and someone else has jumped on it, but I've been able to grab a few.
I can see you've grabbed one on 1 BTC volume, just as a suggestion sell it when you find the odds below 1-2%.
I assume that market is gonna make some traction as there are some big sats players are already there in Predyx.
I didn't say it's gaming. I meant when the market moves unexpectedly higher or lower, you can either buy low, or sell high on these low liquidity markets and balance even the markets back. But this also gives you opportunity to get your investment back.
There's nothing wrong in either yours or the maths of Predyx.