Retail isn't Coming Back

It's been just a matter of days since Bitcoin has broken a new all-time high in US dollars and yet, things are extremely quiet on the ground level... Your friends aren't texting to find out if now is a good time to buy, the normies at work haven't brought it up to you, and Coinbase isn't even in the top 100 overall apps in the Google Play App Store. As of now, it sits at #164.

In Fact, according to Google search trends, worldwide interest in Bitcoin is lower today while setting new all-time highs above $110,000 than it was at the pits of the 2022 bear market when FTX was blowing up and Bitcoin crashed to below $16,000.

the mempool also paints a quiet picture. It’s mostly empty. Just a few blocks’ worth of transactions waiting to confirm, most paying 1–4 sats/vB. In fact, over the last 144 blocks (about 24 hours), the average fee per transaction has hovered below 1,500 sats, roughly $1.50.

This is far from the behavior found on-chain during previous all-time highs. It reflects an underutilized network predominantly being used by its original power users. Meanwhile, the hash rate climbs relentlessly, month after month, setting record after record. Miners are expending more energy than ever, but fee pressure is nowhere to be found.

The typical signs of retail investor enthusiasm, such as increased Google searches, higher Coinbase app downloads, and a congested mempool all remain subdued. This raises the question: Is the current rally predominantly driven by institutional investors, with retail participation lagging behind?

Since the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, these financial instruments have accumulated nearly 1.21 million bitcoin, with total assets under management exceeding $132 billion (or, 5.75%+ of 21M total BTC). Initially, retail investors were the primary contributors to these inflows, accounting for approximately 80% of the total assets under management as of October 2024. However, more recent trends indicate a shift, with institutional investors, including hedge funds and asset managers, increasing their stakes in Bitcoin ETFs.

Institutional exposure more than doubled from Q3 to Q4 of 2024 according to SEC 13-F filings, whereas assets under management for all non-institutional ETF holders grew by 62%. While retail is responsible for approximately 73.7% of AUM in the ETFs, a small number of institutions represent more than a 26% of the ETF inflows as of the end of 2024.

For many retail investors, the scars from the 2021–2022 crypto cycle run deep. They bought into the hype near Bitcoin's previous all-time high of $69,000, only to watch their investments plummet to $15,000. The collapse of major platforms like Terra, Celsius, and FTX didn't just erase wealth—it shattered trust.

This collective trauma has left many retail investors wary. They've seen the cycle before: rapid gains followed by devastating losses. The excitement that once drew them into the market has been replaced by caution and skepticism. Even as Bitcoin reaches new heights, the enthusiasm that characterized previous bull runs is noticeably absent.

By all measurable metrics, retail investors appear increasingly reluctant to step outside the comfort of traditional financial rails to gain Bitcoin exposure. In response to past losses and a heightened desire for security, many are now turning to regulated investment vehicles like spot Bitcoin ETFs, offered by institutions such as BlackRock and Fidelity. These products provide a familiar, low-friction on-ramp by eliminating the need for self-custody, avoiding the risks of phishing and exchange hacks, and sidestepping the complexities of managing wallets or navigating volatile crypto platforms. This behavioral shift helps explain why we’re not seeing a surge in mempool congestion, on-chain activity, or crypto exchange downloads. Retail isn’t gone per se... they are however predominantly choosing to interact with Bitcoin from a "safe" distance, inside the walled garden of TradFi.

Retail might look like it's back, but it isn't. Not really. They've been rerouted. Herded away from the open network and into the controlled comfort of traditional finance, where Bitcoin is boxed up, regulated, and sold as a familiar financial product.

Spot ETFs from firms like BlackRock and Fidelity offer the illusion of exposure without any of the responsibility or freedom that comes with actually owning Bitcoin. There are no private keys, no ability to withdraw, no direct access to the asset. The Bitcoin that backs those shares sits in Coinbase Custody, inaccessible and silent from the investor’s point of view. Retail can watch the price move, but they can't move a single sat.

They can't send it to family. They can't use Lightning. They can't participate in a fork or vote with their coins. Their holdings are locked inside a financial product, subject to tax surveillance and government oversight, with none of the borderless, censorship-resistant qualities that make Bitcoin what it is.

This isn’t Bitcoin as a tool for sovereignty. It’s Bitcoin as a stock proxy, tucked neatly into retirement accounts and brokerage dashboards. Retail hasn't returned to Bitcoin. They've returned to a synthetic version of it. One that looks clean, feels safe, and doesn’t ask them to think too hard.

The crowd is back, but not on the chain. They've returned to price, not protocol.

If this bull run feels quieter than the last one, it’s because it is. Retail investors, once the lifeblood of Bitcoin mania, are largely absent from the on-chain activity. Their presence isn’t being felt where it used to be.

The reasons are stacking up. Regulatory pressure has increased globally, with new tax reporting rules, stricter KYC requirements, and fewer accessible exchanges making direct participation more frustrating than exciting. At the same time, the opportunity cost has shifted. T-bills are yielding 5 percent, and the stock market is deep in an AI-driven rally that feels new and full of upside. Compared to that, Bitcoin’s core narratives like digital gold or inflation protection no longer feel urgent or unique.

Institutions are now leading through ETFs and futures, smoothing out volatility and removing many of the sudden moves that once drew in retail traders. On-chain user experience still falls behind modern apps, Lightning remains niche, and energy concerns continue to shape public perception. More importantly, the cost of everyday life has gone up. Rent is up. Groceries are expensive. People are stretched thin. Student loans have resumed and homeownership is out of reach for many.

Until those conditions shift, retail is unlikely to return in any meaningful way. It is not that they have given up on Bitcoin. They are simply trying to keep up with everything else.

Shown in the image below is a chart that shows the total number of active addresses has suffered a ~42% decrease since its peak in 2021.

Retail hasn’t disappeared. It’s just not on-chain. They’re watching the charts, buying the proxies, and dipping into Bitcoin exposure through familiar vehicles like ETFs and high-beta stocks. MSTR, MSTY, SQ, MARA, and RIOT have become stand-ins for the real thing. For many, that feels close enough. They haven’t sworn off Bitcoin entirely, but they also haven’t found a reason to return to the protocol itself. Price alone isn’t doing it. If Bitcoin is going to recapture retail attention on-chain, it needs more than speculation. It needs to be usable, intuitive, and culturally relevant. Until then, the crowd will stay inside the walled garden, content with price exposure. The question now is what pulls them back into the open network.

Retail won’t return until exploring Bitcoin feels rewarding, not risky. Right now, engaging directly with the network still feels technical, intimidating, and easy to get wrong. The average person doesn’t want to learn about seed phrases, fee markets, or signing messages. They just want it to work, and ideally in one tap.

Self-custody, while powerful, still comes with a learning curve that scares most users off. One typo can lose everything. One phishing link can wipe a life’s savings. When compared to the ease of buying a Bitcoin ETF inside a brokerage app, it becomes obvious why most people choose comfort over control.

Lightning wallets have improved, but mainstream usability is still far off. Many users struggle with basic concepts like payment channels and inbound liquidity. App store reviews often reflect confusion and frustration. More importantly, Lightning still raises serious questions in a high-fee environment. Opening or closing a channel can become expensive when the base layer gets congested. This undermines Lightning’s value as a low-cost, instant settlement layer. If fees are unpredictable, it becomes harder to trust that Lightning will be there when users actually need it.

Apps like Nostr are beginning to pave the way with native Lightning features like zaps, where users can send sats as tips or signals within a social feed. It’s the kind of simple, purpose-driven interaction that could eventually normalize Lightning in everyday use. But for now, it remains niche, with limited reach beyond early adopters and Bitcoin-native circles. The pieces are falling into place, but mainstream readiness is still a long way off.

To pull retail back in, Bitcoin has to compete on usability, not just principle. That means seedless recovery. Wallets that back up automatically. Tap-to-pay Lightning. Default privacy. Smarter fee estimation. The average user should not have to study Bitcoin to use it, just like they don’t need to understand TCP/IP to send an email.

Until the experience becomes effortless, Bitcoin on-chain will remain the domain of power users and diehards. Everyone else will keep choosing exposure over participation, because for now, the friction outweighs the freedom.

Speculation brought retail in. Survival might bring them back. But between those extremes, there needs to be a reason to engage that feels meaningful in everyday life. For most people, Bitcoin still doesn’t offer that. It’s not woven into anything they do. It’s not a tool they reach for. It’s just a number in a ticker—or now, in an ETF.

The core narratives that once drove adoption have lost their urgency. “Digital gold” sounds more like a sales pitch than a breakthrough. “Inflation hedge” didn’t hold up during inflation. “Opt out of the banking system” is hard to relate to when your paycheck hits a checking account and your bills are on autopay. These messages worked when people were curious or scared. But in a world focused on AI, passive income, and stable yields, Bitcoin feels like a cold, hard asset with no warm story.

Retail doesn’t just need new slogans. They need a new reason. A killer app. A cultural hook. Something that connects the protocol to their daily life. That could come from anywhere—remittances, peer-to-peer media, AI payments, creator tools, censorship resistance, even gaming. We’re starting to see glimpses. Nostr’s Lightning zaps, for example, show how sats could flow through social interactions. It's lightweight, casual, and fits into habits people already have. But even that is still early and relatively isolated from the mainstream.

Of course, it’s possible that price alone brings them back. A violent move toward $200,000 or higher could generate headlines, social buzz, and another wave of opportunistic buying. But even in that scenario, most people still won't touch the protocol. They’ll chase exposure, not interaction. They’ll buy tickers, not UTXOs.

Retail will come back when Bitcoin stops being an idea they watch and starts being a tool they use. Until then, attention might spike, but engagement will remain shallow.

Bitcoin is everywhere, but it feels like it’s nowhere. There's no single place where the culture lives. No town square. No digital front porch where holders, builders, speculators, artists, and newcomers all cross paths. And that absence is being felt.

In past cycles, Twitter served as a kind of home for Bitcoin discussion. But now the conversation is fractured. Memes, developer talk, Lightning experiments, and exchange drama are scattered across Telegram groups, Nostr relays, GitHub repos, Reddit threads, and gated newsletters. There’s no central venue that brings it all together. What once felt like a movement now feels more like a loose network of subcultures.

This isn’t just a cultural gap. It’s a usability gap. Without a shared space or interface, discovering Bitcoin's tools, communities, or use cases becomes a fragmented and overwhelming experience. For newcomers especially, it turns exploration into a scavenger hunt. There’s no hub where someone can casually browse peer-to-peer markets, tip someone over Lightning, try a game, test a wallet, or ask basic questions without feeling out of place.

Importantly, this homebase shouldn’t be a corporate platform or single point of failure. It should reflect the values of the network itself—open, decentralized, secure, and resistant to censorship. A sovereign space, not another walled garden. Something that anyone can plug into, build on top of, or access freely without needing permission or credentials. Not a headquarters, but a commons.

Bitcoin doesn’t need a leader, but it could use a center of gravity. A place where its many threads can be visible, accessible, and in conversation with each other. Until it feels like something you can step into, most people won’t feel like they’re truly part of it.

Retail didn’t disappear. It checked out. After wild volatility, failed platforms, and busted narratives, most people aren't rushing back into the Bitcoin Network as we know it. They’ve opted for safety. For simplicity. For familiar rails like ETFs, proxy stocks, and apps that feel intuitive and risk-free.

Bitcoin, meanwhile, has matured in price but not necessarily in presence. The protocol is stronger than ever, but the culture feels scattered. The use cases feel theoretical. The experience still feels fragile. And for most, that's just not enough.

Maybe retail comes back with the next crisis. Maybe it takes a breakout product. Or maybe it doesn’t happen for years. No one knows what the catalyst will be, or if there even has to be one. But what’s clear is that Bitcoin’s next chapter won’t be won by price alone. It will be shaped by the tools we build, the stories we tell, and the places we create for people to show up.

One thing I know for sure: if retail returns, it won’t be for long unless we’ve built something that gives them a real reason to stay.

Find me on Nostr here