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146 sats \ 2 replies \ @SimpleStacker 27 May \ on: Retail Isn't Coming Back [Article] bitcoin
Believe it or not, I think it's because the price cycle isn't yet bullish enough to regenerate retail interest.
When Bitcoin ran up to $60k in 2021, it was coming from a previous ATH of around $10k, almost a 6x increase. We are now retracing to $100k from a previous ATH of ~$60k, a less than 50% increase. I didn't check, but I think the stock market from 2021 to 2025 performed similarly well, and probably a bunch of other asset classes too like real estate. So Bitcoin doesn't look as outstanding as it once did.
I believe that if Bitcoin goes up to $300k within the next year, we will see similar levels of retail interest again. When it happens, they'll probably still buy ETFs, but the amount of interest from friends and family will return to the previous levels.
I agree. Price hasn't increased nearly enough to break through the rest of the noise in society. Retail isn't just not buying bitcoin they aren't talking about it. Same goes for stocks and other assets. I think it is very likely when. Price does triple they will jump into ETFs though
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This is the problem though, they don't need to return to the network for price exposure anymore. In previous cycles they had to, at the very least, go to a crypto exchange to purchase Bitcoin.
This still isn't interacting with the actual Bitcoin network, but they were all still only one WITHDRAW button away from self custodying their holdings. Now, with the ETFs, they're effectively permanent residents of a financial Hotel California.
This is why my point remains, Retail is gone, and they might not be back, because they don't have a real reason to interact with Bitcoin itself. There's no place to use it so there's no pull to encourage them to hold the real asset. TradFi has given them their fix.. access to price exposure.
We, the Bitcoiners, need to give them real reasons to come back before they will consider doing so.
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