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100 sats \ 2 replies \ @grayruby 10 Apr \ parent \ on: Requesting a prediction item on Predxy: Bitbonds Stacker_Stocks
I don't think it needs to be issued on a blockchain. That definitely isn't going to happen. They could issue traditional bonds with a Bitcoin kicker or Bitcoin backing.
I don't think it needs to be issued on a blockchain
How about this:
Resolution Criteria:
This market will resolve to YES if, on or before December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM PST, an official U.S. government body (such as the U.S. Treasury or the Federal Reserve) publicly confirms the issuance of “BitBonds” or a new, non-traditional format of U.S. government bonds designed to modernize access, ownership, or settlement.
To qualify as issuance:
• The bonds must be a new form of U.S. government debt instrument, distinct from traditional Treasury bills, notes, or bonds.
• The product must be framed or widely understood as an effort to modernize or digitally enhance the issuance or trading of U.S. debt.
• The term “BitBond” does not need to be used explicitly, as long as the instrument is clearly part of a government initiative to innovate bond issuance.
Use of blockchain, tokenization, or digital settlement infrastructure is optional, not required.
This market will resolve to NO if:
• No such new format of bond is issued by the U.S. government by the deadline.
• Only proposals, working groups, or test runs occur without an official issuance.
• Any such bond-like product is issued solely by private institutions or international bodies, without direct U.S. government involvement.
Primary Sources:
• Official announcements from treasury.gov, federalreserve.gov, or whitehouse.gov.
• Coverage by credible media sources (e.g., Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ) that cite direct confirmation or official statements.
Ambiguity Clause:
If there is uncertainty about whether the issuance qualifies, resolution will be based on the intent and clarity of the official communication, aligned with the spirit of this market.