Requesting a prediction item on Predxy: Bitbonds \ stacker news ~Stacker

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Requesting a prediction item on Predxy: Bitbonds

160 sats \ 9 comments \ @BlokchainB 10 Apr Stacker_Stocks

zaps forwarded to @mega_dreamer (50%)

Hey @mega_dreamer is it possible for you to create a prediction market that pays out on this outcome:

The US government will issue BitBonds by end of 2025.

Marty Bent thinks this is a possibility because Secretary Bessent has been rosy on bitcoin to the media.

I think this is foolish and I need to buy some no shares!

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289 sats \ 7 replies \ @mega_dreamer fwd 10 Apr

Yes for sure, I'll be listing this market in few minutes. I hope Marty Bent can put some sats on YES.

BTW I met Marty over zoom when we were building Sports Betting on LN. Hope he still remembers me.

432 sats \ 5 replies \ @mega_dreamer fwd 10 Apr

@BlokchainB @grayruby Is this good resolution criteria:

Resolution Criteria: US government issues BitBonds before 2026?

This market will resolve to YES if, on or before December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM PST, there is public confirmation from an official U.S. government body (such as the U.S. Treasury, the Federal Reserve, or any other federal agency) that the United States has officially issued “BitBonds” or tokenized U.S. Treasury bonds on a public or permissioned blockchain.

To qualify as issuance: • The tokenized bonds must represent real U.S. government debt instruments (e.g., Treasury bills, notes, or bonds). • The issuance must be made directly or in partnership with the U.S. government, and not by private entities alone. • The blockchain-based bonds must be available for ownership or trading, even if in a pilot or limited-access phase.

This market will resolve to NO if: • No such bonds are issued or announced as issued by the U.S. government by the deadline. • Only discussions, trials, or proposals occur without actual issuance. • Tokenized bonds are issued only by private institutions or foreign governments, even if denominated in USD.

Primary Sources: • Official press releases or documentation from treasury.gov, federalreserve.gov, or whitehouse.gov • Verified media reports from Bloomberg, Reuters, or WSJ citing direct statements from U.S. government agencies

Ambiguity Clause: If there is significant ambiguity about whether the issuance meets these criteria, the market will remain unresolved until clarification is available from official or trusted sources, or may be resolved at the discretion of the moderators in line with this criteria.

120 sats \ 1 reply \ @BlokchainB OP 10 Apr

👍👍👍

203 sats \ 0 replies \ @mega_dreamer fwd 10 Apr

https://beta.predyx.com/market/us-government-issues-bitbonds-before-2026-1744321647

100 sats \ 2 replies \ @grayruby 10 Apr

I don't think it needs to be issued on a blockchain. That definitely isn't going to happen. They could issue traditional bonds with a Bitcoin kicker or Bitcoin backing.

132 sats \ 1 reply \ @mega_dreamer fwd 10 Apr

I don't think it needs to be issued on a blockchain

How about this:

Resolution Criteria:

This market will resolve to YES if, on or before December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM PST, an official U.S. government body (such as the U.S. Treasury or the Federal Reserve) publicly confirms the issuance of “BitBonds” or a new, non-traditional format of U.S. government bonds designed to modernize access, ownership, or settlement.

To qualify as issuance: • The bonds must be a new form of U.S. government debt instrument, distinct from traditional Treasury bills, notes, or bonds. • The product must be framed or widely understood as an effort to modernize or digitally enhance the issuance or trading of U.S. debt. • The term “BitBond” does not need to be used explicitly, as long as the instrument is clearly part of a government initiative to innovate bond issuance.

Use of blockchain, tokenization, or digital settlement infrastructure is optional, not required.

This market will resolve to NO if: • No such new format of bond is issued by the U.S. government by the deadline. • Only proposals, working groups, or test runs occur without an official issuance. • Any such bond-like product is issued solely by private institutions or international bodies, without direct U.S. government involvement.

Primary Sources: • Official announcements from treasury.gov, federalreserve.gov, or whitehouse.gov. • Coverage by credible media sources (e.g., Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ) that cite direct confirmation or official statements.

Ambiguity Clause: If there is uncertainty about whether the issuance qualifies, resolution will be based on the intent and clarity of the official communication, aligned with the spirit of this market.