pull down to refresh

Howdy Degens!
I was itching to host a meet-up for extraordinary Stackers cum Degens community for quite some time. More so because my RBOA is paying me off better than Undisciplined's. So, I'm so happy that it's finally happening. It's a mega live event, so you can join it in the comments below and share your valuable degeneracy idea there.
Like every other meet-up, it also has an agenda — WIN AND ONLY WIN. (Degens always win)
To connect you with the agenda, let me bring you some interesting markets with a bit of degen analysis.
Do you see the difference between top 2 predicted as winners? It's big, right?
Now have a look at the difference between both teams on the pointa table?
It's very tight between both of them as one match can change the whole scenario. Imo, the odds for should be 30-35%and for inter 55-60%.
  1. Bundesliga Winner
#Odds
#points table
I won't say that Bayern isn't favourite to win the league but Leverkusen also has every chance to turn it around. 3 for 100 isn't a bad deal. The best is you can always sell mid league if the odds for Leverkusen rise.
  1. La Liga Winner
#odds
#points table
This league is even more competitive. Top three sides are fighting it out for the glory and the difference is not big considering we still have 8 matches for each of them. The odds for Real Madrid should in the 20s and Barca should be below 70.
That's all from me for this session of Degens' Meetup #1. I invite you all to share which markets/teams/players are underrated or overrated, but more importantly share how we win more and more Sats on Predyx.
(Disclaimer: While a lot of research is being conducted before providing all the information above, yet DYOR is advised.)
Last one: Stacker News Prediction for 1.4 M items and for 1.5 M items is a bigggggg Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!
I encourage you all to hop in there. I'm largely arbitraging most of the odds by myself right now.
reply
Thanks for the nice and encouraging words. I see what you've done there on predyx in the meantime. While I was busy in posting the news of Pause, you bought a full bag of >82 k and 80-82k shares. Superb!
reply
I saw the news on nostr and traded it.
reply
That's great. How much do you think <82k will sustain next 40 hours or so?
reply
Don't know, but the best predictor of future price is current price.
reply
Soooo, let's flow with the flow.
I don't get the variance in the odds on soccer markets to be honest as the standings do seem close but the traditional sports books have odds very similar to what is reflected in predyx. I have added some shares of a couple of the underdogs recently but I am not going too heavy because it seems Vegas knows something I don't.
Currently my preferred markets are the long term ones that we can trade all year like MLB World Series and Super Bowl and short term markets that pay off soon. I try to earn sats on the short term markets and then deploy the profits to longer term bets where I can still get top teams at low prices.
reply
Vegas knows something I don't.
Vegas has been wrong many times. What you need to look at is the schedule of these teams. In Seria A Napoli's remaining games are scheduled with more miserable teams than the games for Inter are.
I agree that we shouldn't go big with the 2nd ranked teams but we can put some sats on the line and wait for the flippening or more solidity for the topper. The benifit of prediction markets, what I understood so far, is tht you don't lose all if you remain awake for the games.
reply
43 sats \ 1 reply \ @grayruby 9 Apr
Agreed and I am happy to bet against Vegas when I know a sport well. As I did when I told @Undisciplined that the Braves were the third best team in the NL East even though Vegas were giving them the second best odds to win the World Series. Braves now have the 5th best odds to win the world series, which makes more sense.
I have no knowledge or insight about European football that would give me confidence I could make that kind of call. It's the betting version of Gell-Mann Amnesia.
reply
Agreed and I am happy to bet against Vegas when I know a sport well.
Thanks. You nailed the purpose of this meet-up post. We are all from different sporting backgrounds and at least better understand one game very well. I think this post will really help all of us understand the odds for various games.
reply