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recession indicators reliably arriving before a recession hits is the golden prediction tool. (Just sucks that they basically aren't aren't: they either don't arrive in time, or they're not reliable across recessions.)
Here are some pretty wild recession indicators, courtesy of the FT Alphaville team
  • Burrito Now, Pay Later — yes, the Klarna-DoorDash thing
  • People lending against their art—and getting margin called (#915863)
  • UMich expected unemployment
  • _law school applications! (wild indicator!)
  • STRIPPERS having a hard time.
  • Sugar daddy's ghosting peeps.

"Match Group shares seem to be doing fine, though."

Ah, man. What a Sunday evening collection. Lemme know if you manage to trade on any of these.
It's a weird cycle. Yield curve inversion failed to predict for pretty much the first time ever.
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well no; Covid too, I'd say was a mistaken prediction.
(unless, of course, the YC knew that the plandemic was coming, #922854)
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You get credit for being correct when you're correct don't you? It's not like we know what would have happened without Covid.
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Not inconceivable that there would have been one anyway — repo madness 2.0 basically
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