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Predictions are easy to make. Some are made, don't come to pass and no one notices. There are others that people do notice when they fail to come to pass. There's a third type of failed prediction though.
Predictions that fail over and over but people still seem to fall for. Can you think of some examples?
One of my favorites that I've been hearing for over 20 years is about Iran.
"Iran is weeks away from possessing nuclear weapons".
Of course there are many regarding global warming/climate change. As a child of the 80s I grew up learning about the problem and fear was pumped into my veins by government teachers. They meant well. They were nice people. But as a man cursed with remembering such things I recall dire predictions about temperature, deforestation, and pollution that have never materialized. Don't misunderstand. I'm not saying we should not be concerned but the alarmist approach really jaded my view of the "scientific" community long before the Internet became what it is today.
I'm sure I'm not alone. What are some predictions that keep coming back up after failing to materialize?
Environmental doomerism is probably the most damaging one.
Think of how much damage China's one child policy caused.... all because of some ill conceived predictions about population outpacing resources
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Its wild how bad that policy has turned out to be for them and how off the population bomb actually is.
One might critize my post fairly by saying that it is easy to criticize these predictions in hindsight. The thing is that I don't see humility in the elites. They keep making these end of world predictions and people fall for them again and again. They have very bad consequences.
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95 sats \ 1 reply \ @teremok 18 Mar
Surprised no mention of this one:
Robots / AI / AGI / GAI will replace everything
Still, this time the robots are quite powerful. We'll see
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Yep, that's a great one.
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Is the collapse of bitcoin too obvious (in fairness, I suppose some folks would suggest that the collapse of fiat is also one that's constantly promised)?
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Yes, pronouncements of the dollar's demise keep being premature.
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Yeah, this is a good one. The dollar isn't dead. I believe it will die as all fiat currencies do. It will get replaced though. Fiat has a long bit to go IMO.
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A classic example is the “peak oil” theory. For decades, we’ve been hearing that we were running out of oil, that the world would hit a point where production couldn’t keep up with demand. Yet, new technologies like fracking and vast new reserves discovered keep disproving this. Still, the narrative keeps popping up as if it’s inevitable. It’s a good reminder that while some predictions can sound credible, they don’t always age well.
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PEAK OIL! Yes, forgot that one. I mean most of the battery car people if asked would probably tell you we are gonna run out of oil. I'm not opposed to battery cars but man has that prediction been a flop.
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There are also a ton of analogous predictions for pretty much every other mineral and metal. I remember a section on this in my undergrad geography class and knowing at the time how dumb it was. Guess what? We haven't run out of any of those materials, despite increasing our rate of consumption.
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There are also a ton of analogous predictions for pretty much every other mineral and metal. I remember a section on this in my undergrad geography class and knowing at the time how dumb it was. Guess what? We haven't run out of any of those materials, despite increasing our rate of consumption.
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Another one that comes to mind is the “Y2K bug.” We were all told that when the year 2000 hit, computers would crash, planes would fall out of the sky, and chaos would ensue. It was such a big deal, and then… nothing happened. Yet, people still remember the panic around it, even though it turned out to be much ado about nothing.
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Y2K was a big one.
It was over-hyped and largely fixed before it caused any issues.
Maybe there was just a lag, because planes seem to be falling out of the sky now.
I can't remember the exact prediction but in the 90s they were telling us that an insane amount of South American rain forests were being cut down. I remember at the time listening to Rush Limbaugh do the math on it and the number was so absurd it wasn't possible it could be true.
Usually there is a kernel of truth in these things. The forests were being leveled. I believe that. Its that the warning are purposely exaggerated to get our attention. Problem is, that only works for so long. But apparently for a large number of the population it works for decades though.
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Doomers have predicted the last 17 out of 2 market crashes
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Permabears
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“Jesus is coming back”
“Brazil is the country of the future”
And in the last 10 years, “World War III.”
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“This time is different”
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62 sats \ 0 replies \ @Jer 17 Mar
Toronto Maple Leafs…Stanley Cup…something something
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I believe Netanyahu first unveiled the "Iran is months away from having a nuclear weapon." line in the early 90's. It's usually accompanied by a mostly colored in Daffy Duck cartoon bomb, to stress the seriousness of the situation.
Another prediction that seems to take place roughly every eight years is "The Democrats/Republicans might be finished as a party, after this."
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Yeah, that makes sense. Dude seems to be behind a lot of evil stuff. Not a fan.
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There are also positive "predictions" that never come true... For example, pyramid schemes...only 1-2 players change, or only the name, and people still fall for it...of course in the hope of getting rich quick Such predictions always "play" with people's psyche, they manipulate it
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No one has shared this one so I will. In the US in the evangelical Christian world the "Rapture" is one. I don't mean the biblical promise of Christ's second coming. I mean the great tribulation, and secret rapture depicted in the Left Behind series. Its been predicted countless times. Even years and dates put out there. Books sold. Money made off of it.
For those that don't know this belief is not orthodoxy in the Christian faith but rather a modern interpretation of certain prophetic passages in the Bible. Many Christians believe this stuff (I used to be one) even though there own churches do not teach it. Thankfully I think it is waning in popularity. The idea is only about 200 years old after all.
Another tidbit many may not know is that this belief is a large reason why US Christians support the government or Israel over Palestine. A misunderstanding of the Bible has been manipulated into moving massive voter blocks to elect pro-Israel politicians. Its incredibly sad. Its one of the things I was taught as a kid that once I started looking at critically fell apart rather quickly.
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Having had zero exposure to this but being aware of its horrible, heartbreaking effects, what exactly were/are people told about the Rapture? Is it the end of days along with the second coming of Christ or something? What do people think is going to happen? I got plenty of religious education as part of my schooling but we didn’t get told any of this…
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thank you
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in case anyone else is curious (and still reading) and like me cannot relate to this lunacy, one data point I came across is that Evangelical Christians who (apparently) make up 25% of US adults are likely to believe in the Rapture. I am pleased and not suprised to hear that this idea is waning in popularity.
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