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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Bishop 17 Mar \ on: What do you think a collapse in the dollar would actually look/be like? AskSN
After a couple of prompts into perplexity:
A major dollar crisis would likely follow the playbook of the 2008 financial crisis, which involved globally coordinated bailouts to stabilize the U.S. dollar and the broader financial system. Here's how such a scenario might unfold:
Key Elements of a Dollar Crisis Bailout
Massive Liquidity Injection:
Central banks worldwide, led by the Federal Reserve, would inject trillions of dollars into the financial system to stabilize markets. For example, during the 2008 crisis, central banks purchased $2.5 trillion in government debt and troubled private assets, marking the largest monetary policy action in history.
Government-Led Rescue Programs:
The U.S. government would likely enact emergency legislation similar to the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008, which created the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). This program was designed to purchase toxic assets and inject capital into failing financial institutions.
Global Coordination:
International cooperation would be essential to prevent contagion. In 2008, the U.S. pressured other countries to implement similar bailout plans, ensuring global financial stability.
Central Bank Actions:
The Federal Reserve would act as a "lender of last resort," providing liquidity through quantitative easing (QE) and other measures such as purchasing Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities. During 2008, these actions restored confidence in credit markets and prevented a deflationary spiral.
Currency Stabilization:
A dollar crisis could lead to significant devaluation against other currencies and commodities like gold. Coordinated interventions in foreign exchange markets might be necessary to stabilize the dollar's value.
Investor Confidence Measures:
Governments would focus on restoring investor confidence by removing impaired assets from financial institutions' balance sheets, reducing uncertainty, and encouraging lending. These steps were crucial in 2008 to prevent further economic contraction.
Potential Outcomes
Short-Term Stability: Immediate actions would likely prevent a collapse of the global financial system.
Long-Term Risks: Such interventions often lead to increased national debt and inflationary pressures, requiring careful management in subsequent years.
Global Implications: Given the dollar's role as the world's reserve currency, its stabilization would remain a top priority for all major economies.
In summary, a major dollar crisis would trigger globally coordinated efforts resembling those during the 2008 financial crisis, involving liquidity injections, government bailouts, and international cooperation to restore stability.
https://www.perplexity.ai/search/tell-me-about-the-last-major-g-e2Mk9lQATD6SdBAtiOUlLA#1
And, as this is Stacker News, I couldn't resist a follow up Bitcoin related prompt:
Historical patterns indeed suggest that Bitcoin's price could initially collapse but later soar in response to a major economic crisis. This pattern has been observed in several instances:
During the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, Bitcoin initially crashed along with other assets but then experienced a dramatic recovery. The pandemic-induced economic uncertainty and large-scale government stimulus measures led many investors to view Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation.
Bitcoin has shown a tendency to act as a safe haven during national economic crises. Research indicates that when a country experiences major currency devaluation, there's often a spike in Bitcoin trading volume as locals seek safe assets.
The 2018-2020 period demonstrated Bitcoin's resilience. After a significant price drop in 2018, Bitcoin recovered strongly in 2020, driven by macroeconomic factors and growing institutional interest.
However, it's important to note that Bitcoin doesn't always act as a safe haven. During the initial stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, Bitcoin trading actually declined across all countries, suggesting it was still viewed as a risky asset in times of global crisis.
The current market (as of March 2025) has seen Bitcoin drop from its all-time high of $109,114 in January to around $82,600, a 24% decrease. This aligns with the pattern of initial decline during economic uncertainty.
Given these historical trends, it's plausible that Bitcoin could follow a similar pattern in future crises: an initial sharp decline followed by a significant recovery as investors seek alternative stores of value. However, the cryptocurrency market remains highly volatile and subject to various factors, including regulatory changes, technological advancements, and shifts in investor sentiment.