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what is dead may never live (or something?).

I run these updates twice a month: at the end and at the middle of every month. And for full disclosure: each time I shove some extra sats into the No contracts of @mega_dreamer's Predyx bets. (You can find those two contracts here and here)
Previous updates:
  • 17 Feb: "Oh MAN, Are We Slowing Down! (SN Bet Update)" — #888487
  • 1 Feb: "We Can Feel It In Our Bones! SN Slowing Down & Bet Updating" — #871820
  • 15 Jan: "Zaps Failing, Fragility, and Bet Update" — #850716
For this first bet to come into fruition, SN needs roughly 1550 items a day. The daily rate when I first joined last year was roughly in the 1350-range; so not quite there, but with some growth not impossible.
Sadly and unfortunately (or totally predictable?!), that rate is down—waaaaaay down. First time I updated we were at 1,263 a day; then 1293; then 925; and for February as a whole we're at 1,006 a day. For the year so far we're at 1,157 a day. (yey, we're better than first half of February!)

Let's just say these sats will be the easiest sats I ever earned!

Too bad @k00b hasn't seeded the bet with more than 25k.
The alligator mouth of my very-shitty-graph is really starting to open up:
(it's all slimy and curve because I plot down numbers in an excel sheet unevenly—several times a month, at different moments—and I can't figure out a good way to smooth the lines. I suck at tech, whatever.)
Feb 28 is the 59th day of the year (16.2% through the year). With 900,000 items—which I so sneakily/clutch stole!—we're about 12% of the way to the 1.4 million goal. Or a relative trailing of 25.7%.
So not only aren't we producing enough content to keep up, month-by-month, we're also slowing down! (the second derivative is negative): we used to be at 81% the goal; then 76% the goal; then 74%...

Gimme, gimme, gimme those easy sats!

Even though I'm posting frequently and doing my bit to grow SN (#899960), my money isn't where my mouth is!
For this first bet to come into fruition, SN needs roughly 1550 items a day.
Challenge accepted.
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@ek bet pretty heavily on yes and he is fully capable of ramping up the bot posts, if he needs to.
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135 sats \ 0 replies \ @ek 1 Mar
Or have a bug in @nitter again 👀
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bring it man.
I'm looking forward to your more frequent contributions!
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#900000 WHAT IS DEAD MAY NEVER DIE!
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LEEESSSGO
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whoa, what a coincidence that this post got #900000
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not a coincidence... I was waiting for it, HAHA
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Still, I'd say you got lucky because replies get their own itemIds too and it's kinda hard to monitor all the replies across all the posts.
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nah, I was literally sitting refreshing https://stacker.news/items/[number] to know where we were at... and when I saw #899999, I immediately hit post on my pre-written thing
Now we need roughly 1700 items/day to get there. It's not impossible but requires if I calculate for the current deficit, we only need an increase of 600 more items daily.
It's a yes from me. Put as many sats as you want there. SN will overachieve it by December.
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awesome! I guess we'll pump the Predyx liquidity bags for the rest of the year, eh
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What's the reason for this downturn?
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I'm thinking the CCs/tech complication of it ought to be a prime candidate + lower rewards/zaps. Just too messy to deal with; and we're not bribed enough to hang about
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Yes, that's also a possibility, I haven't been here on SN long enough - to experience what it was like before.
Look at what happened to @Alby after they moved from Custodial to self-hosted cloud-based nodes. I can at least say from my personal experience - all our team members literally stopped using alby for testing and switched to WoS. It takes forever to zap from alby, sometimes like 5-15 seconds.
Self-custodial is great for a lot of use-cases, but if interferes with UX, then its a road-blocker and needs to be re-looked.
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preeeeecisely!
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We're getting fewer bot posts, but more quality posts, imo.
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CCs/tech complication of it ought to be a prime candidate
Strange, just because of CCs, people are leaving Stacker News. If they want sats, they can easily attach a wallet and still receive rewards in sats as well. What's complex here? I don't understand why they couldn't use it to post and comment as they did with sats.
Lower rewards/Zaps?
They should ask what FB, TikTok, Twitter, etc. give them. When I joined here, I no longer felt like I was the product; I ditched every single social media platform out there recently.
We're not bribed enough to hang about.
It's their loss and the loss of people who are still into those platforms and have gone back. It's just like the majority of people who haven't discovered the value of Bitcoin and Stacker News. There is a wealth of information flowing around here just waiting to be discovered, whether by us or through random searches. People will find it (like I found Stacker News when I was searching for wallets).
@k00b and his team have created the best program ever, and I'm definitely hopeful that Stacker News will find its success. If I had a list of people who left Stacker News for the reasons you listed above, I would mute them straight away, I swear.
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"easily attach."
Man, I wouldn't call it easy. And the growing pains/changing over was a mess. (I still understand nada of what's going on, and it breaks down once every few weeks).
"rewards" oh, for sure, compared to Twitter/centralized social media of course this is better. But I could also just go sit in the park? Watch a movie?
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22 sats \ 1 reply \ @gmd 28 Feb
Yeah i'm a fairly OG stacker but i've been sticking to CCs because it just seems like a PITA that I'm too lazy to look into. I loaded up a few tens of thousands of sats prior to the update to not have to worry about it for a while.
Which wallet are you using? I'm using Coinos and WoS. Recently, I'm only using WoS because I don't want to ruin Coinos and be a burden on them for their good service just for zap sats. I do receive sats as well as CCs with no problem.
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I personally think it was the recent bull market. I've been talking to other Bitcoin related founders, they all seem to echo that, in the bull phase, bitcoiners tend to become less social and vice versa in the bear phase. Also, bitcoiners tend to spend less in the bull phase and more in bear markets.
I could be wrong, but just a different view point to consider.
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This makes a lot of sense. So, a bear phase is what defines the future of Stacker News? If what you're saying is true (and I think it may be the case as well), it's scary because Bitcoin is expected to go up and up in the future. Again, what I think is that on Stacker News, everyone is a Bitcoin maximalist or a type of it, so I don't think the bull or bear phase matters here. Thanks for your insights
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Thanks, I think its also conditioning of what is bull/bear phase.
Lets say if we stay in 80k-110k range for an extended period of time with an occasional jump to 180-200k. The 80k-110k range will become the new bear phase.
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Holy cow, that's why I use Stacker News. You guys just gave me a new way to think. Thanks again
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fuck predyx
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Why, fuck predyx? What did we do?
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don't worry about Darth. He's retarded
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You push people to do stupid bets, gambling with their sats. That's stupid, is a plague. Spend your sats wisely not on useless bets. I have a total disrespect for people that are betting with their sats.
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I want to ask just one thing that's been bugging my mind. On my post about Silk Road and Ross Ulbricht (#859920), you said you have no real problem with free markets. When I asked about the sale of drugs, you mentioned that for you, free market means just doing what you can do, right? So, how is gambling and betting considered stupid? It's literally a part of the free market and is harmless as well (while drugs are the real issue). We have big names here like @Undisciplined, @grayruby, and @mega_dreamer; they are all doing harmless things, not dealing with drugs for sats or vice versa.
When the world becomes orange pilled, these things will be normal. The only difference will be that there would be no fiat; Bitcoin might end up in the hands of a ruthless terrorist or a father of a church.
Please don't see this as me fighting with you; I'm just asking. Thanks
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Betting with sats (true scarcity) it means you have no idea how valuable are those sats. Throwing them into stupid bets that add NO VALUE whatsoever shows how dumb you are about your future. Sats must be spent only on things that really matter in your life. If you consider that a stupid bet for something meaningful is important, then you are an idiot that don't deserve to have bitcoin.
When the world becomes orange pilled, these things will be normal
No will not. When is about to spend your sats you will think twice because earning them will be damn difficult.
YOU WILL ALL REMEMBER MY WORDS (because all of you were just shitcoining until now and ignored Bitcoin at all, meanwhile I was in Bitcoinlandia for a loooong time and I've seen a lot of things).
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Throwing them into stupid bets that add NO VALUE whatsoever shows how dumb you are about your future.
But how is throwing them into buying drugs, stolen credit card info, or fake IDs okay? To be honest, that's happening more than these small scale betting activities. I'm not into gambling or support it, as I can't afford to lose anything that's beyond my control.
Sats must be spent only on things that really matter in your life. If you consider that a stupid bet for something meaningful is important, then you are an idiot who doesn't deserve to have Bitcoin.
Thanks, this is the best answer, but people also don't need drugs, stolen credit card details, etc., and that shouldn't be tolerate in the name of free markets. That was what I was asking about.
I'm surely dumbest, but if I don't ask questions, I feel even dumber.
Brother, we all want SN to grow - read between the lines, not the actual lines. Understand the intention behind the post, not the post.
BTW - We don't push people to stupid bets, we are creating a circular economy, so that these sats remain within the bitcoin maximalist/stackers.
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Great answer plus gambling and prediction is just entertainment.
If it gets out of control it’s on that person to set the limit like everything else in like
Food Sex Video games Sugar Booze
All can destroy you if you OD on it
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Thanks for concurring with my thoughts.
Exactly, and anything can become addictive that creates dopamine high.
Have 100 more easy sats
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The quality of the conversation/posts, in my opinion, used to be higher. I blame cowboy credits for some of it...
The rest unfortunately I blame on 'some folks' here who... somehow cannot come to terms and admit that Mr. Trump is a terrible president and slows Bitcoin adoption overall.
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Treason!! You don't like god-king Elon?!
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