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One of President Trump’s proposals for his new term is to abolish the federal income tax and replace it with tariffs as the primary revenue source for the US federal government. In a brilliant rhetorical move, he suggests implementing this through abolishing the Internal Revenue Service and replacing it with the “External Revenue Service,” claiming that the tariffs collected by this new agency would be financed by foreigners rather than Americans. This sure sounds like a good deal.
Trump has claimed that “tariff” is the most beautiful word in the English language, even more so than “love.” Perhaps it would be if it were a device by which one could costlessly extract funds from foreigners. But is a tariff capable of doing such a thing?
Standard microeconomic analysis tells us that the economic “incidence” of a tax (that is, who really pays what portion of it) is not necessarily who statutorily collects it. In other words, just because sales tax is collected by the seller who then pays it to the tax man, this doesn’t mean that it is the seller paying the whole tax. Rather, the incidence of the tax depends on the relative elasticities of the buyer’s demand and the seller’s supply. A greater portion of the tax will be borne by the party whose demand (or supply) is relatively inelastic, ….
But there is nothing magical about tariffs. They are taxes and they are paid by you.
Yessireee, tariffs are nothing new, they are taxes and they are paid by you. The rest is trickery and renaming, which is a trick the politicians like to use a lot. We will be paying, one way or another because as the article explains: there are not perfectly inelastic or elastic demands and supplies, so we wind up paying. By not calling it a sales tax, Trump can slip it by our tax-o-meters unnoticed. BS called out once again!
100% correct and well said. The primary beneficiaries of Trumps tariffs will be the US manufacturers who output they protect and the wealthy US citizens who benefit from his income tax reductions. But US exports will not benefit as only domestic sales will enjoy the improvement in competitiveness that the tariffs generate. Tariffs will probably make US manufacturing even less competitive as it becomes more and more and more dependent upon the protected and distorted domestic market. In a addition export markets are also certain to take retaliatory action of some form which likely would disadvantage US exporters. China has won the trade war and tariffs will not reverse that. Trumps tariffs will only make the US more isolated and less competitive. They will also push other nations into even closer economic relationships with China.
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We will have to wait to see how the tariffs are applied and what the results will be. We don’t know yet whether he will be changing them in variable ways to modify the results. Trump is noted for shaking the box up, seeing the results and, then, making changes to his course. If he is doing that, it will be hard to tell who is being affected by what actions. I suspect that he will be doing what he can to dodge blame for any backfires, anyway.
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