Polls give equal weight to experts and dolts, while offering no incentive to try to be accurate.

Here's little ChatGPT comparison:

**Polls vs. Prediction Markets**

• Polls measure opinions at a moment in time, often influenced by bias, sampling errors, and respondents’ honesty.
• Prediction Markets aggregate real-money bets, leveraging incentives to reward accurate forecasts and filter out noise.

**Key Difference:** Polls reflect sentiment; prediction markets reflect informed expectations.

mega_dreamer

Politics_And_Law

🚨 Will Ukraine hold an election in 2025? 🗳️

Polls have only an extensive margin. Prediction markets have both extensive and intensive margins.