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136 sats \ 4 replies \ @0xbitcoiner 21 Feb \ on: 🚨 Will Ukraine hold an election in 2025? 🗳️ Politics_And_Law
It would be interesting to take advantage of these posts and do a survey here on SN!
Polls have only an extensive margin. Prediction markets have both extensive and intensive margins.
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Here's little ChatGPT comparison:
Polls vs. Prediction Markets
• Polls measure opinions at a moment in time, often influenced by bias, sampling errors, and respondents’ honesty.
• Prediction Markets aggregate real-money bets, leveraging incentives to reward accurate forecasts and filter out noise.
Key Difference: Polls reflect sentiment; prediction markets reflect informed expectations.
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Polls give equal weight to experts and dolts, while offering no incentive to try to be accurate.
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Yup! "No incentive" == "No reason to be right"
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