pull down to refresh
Polls have only an extensive margin. Prediction markets have both extensive and intensive margins.
reply
Here's little ChatGPT comparison:
Polls vs. Prediction Markets
• Polls measure opinions at a moment in time, often influenced by bias, sampling errors, and respondents’ honesty. • Prediction Markets aggregate real-money bets, leveraging incentives to reward accurate forecasts and filter out noise.
Key Difference: Polls reflect sentiment; prediction markets reflect informed expectations.
reply
Polls give equal weight to experts and dolts, while offering no incentive to try to be accurate.
reply
Yup! "No incentive" == "No reason to be right"
reply
It would be interesting to take advantage of these posts and do a survey here on SN!