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0 sats \ 3 replies \ @Undisciplined 10 Feb \ on: Will Canada Remain a Sovereign Nation? Politics_And_Law
I'd say fairly high (almost 1). It's so hard to imagine a large developed country just getting absorbed by a neighbor. Has that ever happened, other than through military conquest?
Well there are a few ways this assumption could fall apart.
The obvious one is a direct takeover, which seems unlikely.
The next level version of a takeover is if the US simply said “All Canadians who meet some basic economic criteria are welcome to immigrate to the US”. It would be a more aggressive form of the brain drain which has been plaguing Canada for years now. This would hamstring the Canadian economy to the point where a direct takeover becomes more likely.
A third option is if a province like Quebec, which has tried to leave Canada twice before (their 1995 vote was decided 50.6% in favor of staying, 49.4% in favor of leaving), were to vote to leave the country. They wouldn’t necessarily join the US, they’d likely become their own distinct country.
Alberta is in the strongest economic position today, so they could in theory try something similar.
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My sense is that it takes years for regions to go through al the steps of becoming independent, but I don't know if that would be true for Canada.
If you had made the timeline 20 years, I would have answered differently.