10 years from now (in 2035), what are the odds that Canada is still a sovereign nation composed of its current 10 provinces and 3 territories?
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20 sats \ 2 replies \ @grayruby 21h
99.9%
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50 sats \ 1 reply \ @kr OP 21h
No new territories created either? Nunavut was only 25 years ago
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @grayruby 21h
Probably not.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Butterfinger 18h
We need secession and national divorces.
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0 sats \ 1 reply \ @Akg10s3 22h
I'll just say that Trump is crazy out there.... đ
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4 sats \ 0 replies \ @oliverweiss 20h
He will hopefully no longer be alive in 2035.
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0 sats \ 1 reply \ @Aardvark 22h
It would take something pretty drastic for things time change, but the world is a crazy place so I'd say that there's a greater than 0 chance.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @kr OP 22h
Canada almost lost a province in 1980 and 1995, and they did create a new territory in 1999.
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0 sats \ 3 replies \ @Undisciplined 22h
I'd say fairly high (almost 1). It's so hard to imagine a large developed country just getting absorbed by a neighbor. Has that ever happened, other than through military conquest?
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27 sats \ 2 replies \ @kr OP 22h
Well there are a few ways this assumption could fall apart.
The obvious one is a direct takeover, which seems unlikely.
The next level version of a takeover is if the US simply said âAll Canadians who meet some basic economic criteria are welcome to immigrate to the USâ. It would be a more aggressive form of the brain drain which has been plaguing Canada for years now. This would hamstring the Canadian economy to the point where a direct takeover becomes more likely.
A third option is if a province like Quebec, which has tried to leave Canada twice before (their 1995 vote was decided 50.6% in favor of staying, 49.4% in favor of leaving), were to vote to leave the country. They wouldnât necessarily join the US, theyâd likely become their own distinct country.
Alberta is in the strongest economic position today, so they could in theory try something similar.
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0 sats \ 1 reply \ @Undisciplined 21h
My sense is that it takes years for regions to go through al the steps of becoming independent, but I don't know if that would be true for Canada.
If you had made the timeline 20 years, I would have answered differently.
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21 sats \ 0 replies \ @kr OP 21h
I think youâre right - the first time Quebec voted to leave Canada was 1980
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