Dashjr: 6 confirmations not enough anymore \ stacker news ~bitcoin

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Dashjr: 6 confirmations not enough anymore x.com/LukeDashjr/status/1888295040113361129

1657 sats \ 26 comments \ @Scoresby 9 Feb bitcoin

Because Antpool-group has ~40% of hashrate.

Loop concurs with the statement. Links to his confirmation risk calculator.

Are you waiting for more confirmations these days?

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83 sats \ 0 replies \ @nullcount 9 Feb

I have agreed with this for over 1-year

#242608

I'm surprised more economic nodes aren't updating their min-conf policy to account for the risks of transacting onchain while mining is relatively centralized.

17 sats \ 1 reply \ @optimism 9 Feb

FACT CHECK

Based on the 3mo report from mempool space, and looking for matching merkle hashes (for the WHOLE range) on stratum.work, I get to:

Antpool	0.1939
SecPool 0.0391
Binance	0.0192
Luxor 0.0190
Braiins 0.0176

EMCD <0.0005        -\
Poolin <0.005        |
Ultimus <0.005       |
Rawpool <0.005       +---- cannot be more than 0.0183 (other)
CloverPool <0.005    |
Headframe	<0.005   |
SigmaPool <0.0005   -/

0.1939+0.0391+0.0192+0.0190+0.0176+<0.0183 = total < 0.3071

30.71% - less than foundry (32.55%)

I'd like to know how Mr. DashJr gets to 48%.

100 sats \ 0 replies \ @Kenobi 10 Feb

Btw, you can also now check the merkle brances on mempool space: #878573

50 sats \ 0 replies \ @Jon_Hodl 9 Feb

While I think Luke has made some valuable contributions to bitcoin, I mostly think he is an absolute moron.

17 sats \ 1 reply \ @Butterfinger 9 Feb

Why according to Loop's calculator if I put 200 confirmations it gives a low risk and 1000 confirmation 100% risk?

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @ChrisS 9 Feb

There appears to be a bug in the calculation and anything over 808 confirmations at 48 percent of the hash rate says 100 percent reorg risk. 800 confirmations fives 5 percent reorg risk and if that calculation is correct than every confirmation after that will be lower than 5 percent.

17 sats \ 17 replies \ @OT 9 Feb

That might be a bit of a stretch. Still, I don't know why miners are OK with continuing to point hash at Antpool-group. Do they not care?

47 sats \ 2 replies \ @EverythingSatsoshi 9 Feb

This was spoken about in the recent pod done by the ocean team. The idea that people would do the right thing by pointing their hash elsewhere, when a pool gets centralized or malicious, is a long dead idea. The main reason is, according to Luke, "the large miners at foundry and ANT Pool aren't bitcoiners". That cannot be further from the truth. The miners we have today have a different philosophy and understanding of bitcoin than miners from a decade ago

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @028559d218 9 Feb

what do you mean they 'aren't Bitcoiners' and you disagreed with this statement? They aren't.

Or they are large, industrial size mining pools who could care less about censorship they just want the $$$ even getting paid out in Dollars/fiat directly.

And even if they wanted to 'fight censorship' how can they if they have large industrial facilities, publicly listed companies, located onsite in Texas?

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @nitter 9 Feb bot

https://xcancel.com/ocean_mining/status/1888347546067640576

47 sats \ 0 replies \ @ek 9 Feb

Do they not care?

maybe it's related to this meme (among other things):

90 sats \ 11 replies \ @DarthCoin 9 Feb

stupid people = fiat maxis mining BTC only for fiat profits

39 sats \ 9 replies \ @SimpleStacker 9 Feb

So how can non mining plebs fight miner centralization?

75 sats \ 5 replies \ @DarthCoin 9 Feb

start mining ?

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Butterfinger 9 Feb

does it make any difference if many of us start mining with bitaxes? It must solo mining then, right?

0 sats \ 3 replies \ @nikotsla 9 Feb

This.

21 sats \ 2 replies \ @028559d218 9 Feb

You have to Solo Mine... or mine with Ocean or at least a 'non-chinese' small group. And the hashrate from small 'home' miners is so small... we would need hundreds of thousands of them to make any noticeable difference.

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0 sats \ 2 replies \ @itsMoro 10 Feb

you can only fight miner centralization by mining. if you don't own miners you can also buy mining contracts and point them to the pool of your choice to help out via rigly.io

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @DarthCoin 10 Feb

Cloud mining is a scam.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @itsMoro 10 Feb

indeed

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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @DarthCoin 9 Feb

17 sats \ 0 replies \ @elvismercury 9 Feb

Everybody's got a plan till they get punched in the face.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @CruncherDefi 10 Feb

Where did he the numbers from? Those numbers look extremely incorrect.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @nitter 9 Feb bot

https://xcancel.com/LukeDashjr/status/1888295040113361129