Obtaining housing increases the average probability of having a child by 3.8% and the number of children by 3.2%.
For 20 to 25-year-olds, the corresponding effects are 32% and 33%.
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5046571
https://xcancel.com/florianederer/status/1876465625188716997
Very interesting, though I wonder how much of it is housing vs. simply a wealth effect.
Geez, are you a professional economist or something?
They should have given the one group a housing voucher and the other cash, but then you'd have to control for how much of the cash was spent on housing.
Alternatively, they could have done some sort of intent to treat design and just teach one group how to use real estate sites, fill out housing paperwork, etc. Then, if that group used more housing attribute the difference to the intervention and proceed from there.
Ah, but is the program scalable?
Who cares? We're dispassionate scientists, not political activists.
I’ll take one house please.
Sorry, you got randomized into the group that only gets training on how to use real estate websites and fill out paperwork
Do you think this only applies to Brazil, or could it be true in other countries?
The cause and effect sound intuitive to me (which is not enough to prove a theory ofc) but therefore I assume it to be universal.
Someone in another comment here mentioned nuclear vs kinship families. Which might be an interesting aspect to investigate
Nah, I'm stupid lmao. Brazilian culture would have been exactly the kind of culture I was talking about. I just assumed the paper was talking about western (UK, US Australia) family culture of 1 couple and their children per household.
I don't think that's the only factor but surely plays a big role in family formation.
Not at all surprising. Luckily Bitcoin fixes this.
In large part thanks to currency debasement and people using real estate as an inflation hedge and investment, when bitcoin is what they need.
Predictably all the politicians can do is suggest more taxes .
Yup! Spread the joy!
I agree generally that obtaining a house can lead to more family creation, but not when you're leveraged to the tits to do so, if you don't have much dispossible income after covering your home, you're less likley to pop one out
As for the quality of home that also comes into play, if you're in a tiny ass flat you might also be less inclined
I think there is also a correlation between new home ownership and the age of the folks moving in being child bearing age.
That's also a good point, we can see that with elder millenials who put it all on getting a home in a big city, a portion of them choose to be dinks because A they're overleveraged and have very little savings and B they might feel they're too old now to start a family
fuck, that's a nice paper. Gotta dive in
@remindme in 2 days
Makes pefect sense to me.
I imagine that less than 50 years ago the difference would be that Access to Capital would replace Access to Credit.
So free housing for everyone to save the fertility rate!
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