How the West (could be) won
In true Wild West fashion, the NFC West division in the NFL is shaping up for a potentially Wild finish with four weeks to go in the season. I say potentially because with a division leading 8-5 record the Seattle Seahawks truly control their own destiny. However, they have a fairly difficult remaining schedule, so despite being in the driver's seat there is no guarantee they will stay there.
Besides, it is more fun to hypothesize about potential chaos. There is an outside chance (stressing outside) that all four teams in the NFC West could finish with a 9-8 record and a 3-3 divisional record which would negate the first two tiebreakers (head to head and divisional record) and leave us with absolute tiebreaker chaos.
Before we explore how it could play out. Let's take a look at the current standings, divisional records and conference records.
As you can see, Seattle is in control. They have the best record, the best divisional record and best conference record. Now we got that boring stuff out of the way, let's see how Seattle could screw it up and let the other teams catch them and give us all the chaotic ending to this season we deserve.
How Seattle can contribute to chaos: Seattle has a difficult remaining schedule.
WK 15 vs Green Bay Packers (9-4)
WK 16 vs Minnesota Vikings (11-2)
WK 17 @ Chicago Bears (4-9)
WK 18 @ LA Rams (7-6)
I am not sure the Seahawks are better than any of these teams including the Bears. They certainly aren't better than the Packers and Vikings (fortunately for them these are home games) and they have already lost to the Rams this season. They might be better than the Bears but the Bears have played very close games against some elite teams this season, so even though the Seahawks should win that game it is not guaranteed. If Seattle loses 3/4 of these games and one of those games is against the Rams they will finish the season 9-8 overall with a 3-3 division record and 5-7 conference record.
How LA can contribute to chaos: The Rams have a less difficult schedule but three remaining divisional games.
WK 15 @ San Francisco 49ers (6-7)
WK 16 @ NY Jets (3-10)
WK 17 vs Arizona Cardinals (6-7)
WK 18 vs Seattle Seahawks (8-5)
Rams can help themselves a lot here with so many divisional games remaining but they can also hurt themselves. Let's assume they beat the Jets, not guaranteed but likely, and they beat the Seahawks in LA the last game of the year. Then they would need to lose to the 49ers in SF this week and lose to the Cardinals in LA in a couple weeks. They have already lost to the Cardinals in a blow out earlier this year and barely beat the 49ers with a heroic 4th quarter comeback. Fortunately for the Rams they have a number of the key players back healthy since then but in keeping with the chaos outcome, let's assume they drop those games. This would give them an overall record of 9-8, 3-3 in the division and 5-7 in the conference.
How Arizona can contribute to chaos: The Cardinals have a fairly easy remaining schedule.
WK 15 vs New England Patriots (3-10)
WK 16 @ Carolina Panthers (3-10)
WK 17 vs LA Rams (7-6)
WK 18 vs SF 49ers (6-7)
The Patriots and Panthers are weaker opponents, although the Panthers have been playing better lately. They also get to play the divisional games at home. Let's assume they beat the Patriots, Panthers and Rams but lose to the 49ers the final week of the season. This would give them an overall record of 9-8, 3-3 in the division and 5-7 in the conference.
How San Francisco can contribute to chaos: The 49ers have a tough remaining schedule but they showed some signs of life this past weekend against the Bears with their best performance of the year.
WK 15 vs LA Rams (7-6)
WK 16 @ Miami Dolphins (6-7)
WK 17 vs Detroit Lions (12-1)
WK 18 @ Arizona Cardinals (6-7)
This is a tough schedule but the 49ers are better than all these teams besides the Lions. Whether they can overcome their injuries to beat them is another story. They get a bit of a benefit in the Miami road game as they get a mini bye having played the TNF game this week. The most glaring game on this schedule is the Lions. The 49ers beat the Lions in the NFC Championship last year but that was a close game and the 49ers were fully healthy and a dominant team. Anything can happen but let's pencil the Lions game as a loss and assume they win the rest of the games. This would give them an overall record of 9-8, 3-3 in the division and 6-6 in the conference.
And that's how the West could be won (by the 49ers of course). Not with a bang but with a chaotic 4 team, 3rd tiebreaker.
Sats for all,
GR