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19 sats \ 4 replies \ @south_korea_ln 18 Nov \ on: Debt Wager: U.S. National Debt Over 40trn by Independence Day Next Year? bitcoin
Unless they changed their system (they said they would), one should not bet so long in advance on https://www.bitcoinprediction.market/. You can wait until the last minute, you'll avoid any risk (especially with this kind of bet) with the same profit as if you had bet today.
yea, that's the portion of this I haven't quite understood yet. If I don't get the odds at betting time but merely split whatever pot the losers put in (minus fees) there is, as you say, no point doing things too early.
The 50:50 I'm seeing right now, isn't the payout I'm getting
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See #756879
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nice, thanks!
Yea, what I don't like about that obviously is that I'm not just betting the outcome of the bet but also one level up, i.e., how will others on the platform bet this bet.
Keynesian beauty contest on top of an actual real-world outcome.
Ugh.
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We're working on changing the system. LMSR version should be out by end of year or early next year!
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