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Predyx | Advanced Prediction Markets with Lightning Network Integrationbeta.predyx.com/
2472 sats \ 74 comments \ @ek 26 Sep 2024 oracle
I received this email today:
Thank you for being on our waitlist! We are thrilled to announce that Predyx is officially live! You now have access to our powerful prediction platform with seamless Lightning Network integration. It’s time to dive in and make your predictions count.
Predict Now and Win Big!
What you get with Predyx:
⚡ Real-time market predictions ⚡ Lightning-fast payouts with the Lightning Network ⚡ Micro-predictions with sats ⚡ Compete with users worldwide
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233 sats \ 17 replies \ @mega_dreamer 26 Sep 2024
Hey @ek, Thanks for sharing!
I'm the co-founder of Predyx and I'm here to answer any questions SN folks might have.
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117 sats \ 3 replies \ @ken 27 Sep 2024
Hi! Not sure where to report a bug:
I had 500 sats in my cash balance, and when I tried to buy a position, it debited the sats from my cash but didn't add the position to my portfolio.
Otherwise, great concept!
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36 sats \ 2 replies \ @mega_dreamer 27 Sep 2024
Thanks for reporting the bug - I've noted it down, it seems payment from internal wallet is failing for some users. Our developers just went to sleep after a long day. We will fix it as soon as they wake up. Meanwhile if you want to continue playing, please use external wallets to pay for the bets. Please let me know which market was this for, and we will either refund you or issue shares of that market.
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23 sats \ 1 reply \ @ken 27 Sep 2024
Awesome, thanks for looking into it! I was trying to buy 450 sats on the yes side of "Bitcoin above $60,000 on October 25?"
Shares are fine, since we both know that bitcoin is going to be above $60,000 on October 25th :D
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42 sats \ 0 replies \ @mega_dreamer 27 Sep 2024
Great, we will promptly issue you 450 shares of "Bitcoin above $60,000 on October 25?" as soon as any of the devs wake up.
Yes its an easy market we created so that people can have fun in the early days :)
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100 sats \ 8 replies \ @User21000000 27 Sep 2024
Hey why do you call them predict instead of bet? It’s essentially betting on these outcomes? Is it to distance yourself from the betting world or ? Or regulations associated with gambling?
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100 sats \ 7 replies \ @mega_dreamer 27 Sep 2024
Yes, actually predictions are not betting. And betting has wrong association. In reality you're just trading. We also plan to change "Bet YES/NO" to "Trade YES/NO".
The key difference between betting and predicting is that in Betting you need to wait for the event to complete, whereas in Predictions you can sell your shares early, thus minimizing your loss or maximizing your profits. And that's a very big difference, in reality you're only trading your shares, with the catch that your shares value could go to zero.
Hope this helps!
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100 sats \ 6 replies \ @User21000000 27 Sep 2024
It does thanks. Does each time sell your share you need someone willing to buy that share? And does this make a tax event like shares buy and sell would?
It’s interesting hope it goes well
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142 sats \ 5 replies \ @mega_dreamer 27 Sep 2024
We use LMSR for pricing and cost calculation, thus there is no need to wait for someone to buy. The LMSR model offers a spot price. Predyx is still considered a play money market due to the micro bets nature, not sure if that will be a taxable event, but our legal team is actively looking into any kinda regulations that we need to follow.
More about LMSR (credit @ek) : http://blog.oddhead.com/2006/10/30/implementing-hansons-market-maker/
Our twitter post on LMSR: https://x.com/predyx_markets/status/1827462665431871941
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100 sats \ 3 replies \ @ek OP 27 Sep 2024
Thanks for the credit! I assume @itsTomekK mentioned it to you?
Do you have plans to add an order book? My first MVP had one but now I think an automated market maker is more important at the beginning. But with an order book anyone can add liquidity so ideally one would have both just like exchanges with their market vs limit orders.
Do you have plans to add ecash? I’ve been thinking about using ecash to avoid the problem of the price becoming stale between invoice generation and invoice payment. You could use HODL invoices but I suspect the UX would suck.
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100 sats \ 0 replies \ @nitter 27 Sep 2024 bot
https://xcancel.com/predyx_markets/status/1827462665431871941
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100 sats \ 1 reply \ @ek OP 27 Sep 2024
How long have you been working on this and with how many devs?
When and how did you get the initial idea for Predyx?
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100 sats \ 0 replies \ @mega_dreamer 27 Sep 2024
We've been working on Predyx since December last year, just 2 devs including me. I do DevOps and a CEO. Just three of us.
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100 sats \ 1 reply \ @grayruby 27 Sep 2024
Site looks great but I was only able to bet 100 sats on any outcome. Anytime I tried to bet more I got an error message saying "could not find event outcome" or something to that effect.
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20 sats \ 0 replies \ @mega_dreamer 27 Sep 2024
Yes duly noted, and we're working on the fix.
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132 sats \ 2 replies \ @mega_dreamer 27 Sep 2024
Wow @ek, you're a legend!
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200 sats \ 1 reply \ @ek OP 27 Sep 2024
Haha, I just figured that someone has to pump these numbers up
But I am not here to fuck spiders either
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20 sats \ 0 replies \ @mega_dreamer 27 Sep 2024
lol, thanks for supporting us!
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184 sats \ 23 replies \ @OT 26 Sep 2024
This is cool!
I have someone on nostr that wants to bet me on the results of the US election. Maybe we can just use this instead.
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256 sats \ 21 replies \ @Undisciplined 26 Sep 2024
I just bet on both Kamala and Trump to lose. There was an arbitrage opportunity, so I'm guaranteed to win some sats.
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72 sats \ 12 replies \ @mega_dreamer 26 Sep 2024
Yes, you can for sure arbitrage in the initial stage. Markets are very thinly traded for now. Have fun!
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125 sats \ 11 replies \ @Undisciplined 26 Sep 2024
I will. I also made a real prediction that the Chiefs won't win the Super Bowl.
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69 sats \ 10 replies \ @mega_dreamer 26 Sep 2024
Awesome! I see it :) Thanks for supporting us!
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100 sats \ 9 replies \ @Undisciplined 27 Sep 2024
This is awesome! We've been wanting something like it for a long time (looking at you @ek).
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67 sats \ 2 replies \ @OT 26 Sep 2024
Interesting. The spreads look pretty close. Hope you bet big!
What does the platform take BTW?
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37 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined 26 Sep 2024
I didn't. I just thought it was funny.
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38 sats \ 0 replies \ @mega_dreamer 26 Sep 2024
Its 0% fee for now. We will add fees in Release 2.
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230 sats \ 2 replies \ @ken 26 Sep 2024
The odds on these markets are not properly set. Lots of opportunities here.
Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? currently has roughly 50:50 odds. Clearly the chance of any single team winning the Super Bowl is less than 50%.
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27 sats \ 0 replies \ @mega_dreamer 27 Sep 2024
Yes its an early market! We didn't want to set the odds. We will let the market decide which way it wants to take it.
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221 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined 26 Sep 2024
Yep, that's the other one I took.
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23 sats \ 1 reply \ @0xIlmari 27 Sep 2024
Freak accidents happen. Either of the main candidates can fall out of the race still and be replaced by a surprise winner. A third-party candidate may steal it. Elections may be cancelled. Also, humans are bad at estimating chances/risks in general, especially for low-probability events.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined 27 Sep 2024
Exactly, they can't both be "yes" but they can both be "no".
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @mega_dreamer 26 Sep 2024
Soon in Release 2, you'll be able to create your own private market and only you and your invited friends can bet.
For now, please request any markets that you'd like to be created for you and your friends, it'll be public market though.
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74 sats \ 6 replies \ @BlokchainB 27 Sep 2024
This email just doxxed mad email addresses😂
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62 sats \ 5 replies \ @ek OP 27 Sep 2024
haha true
There was another stacker.news address next to mine. I wondered what was that about. Did they think their LN address can receive email when they submitted that?
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142 sats \ 4 replies \ @BlokchainB 27 Sep 2024
I have no clue @mega_dreamer what happened? How yall just doxx a bunch of emails. All you had to do was BCC such a rookie mistake
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151 sats \ 1 reply \ @mega_dreamer 27 Sep 2024
Hey, really sorry it happened. It was one of us who made this big blunder.
We panicked because our Azure Email System was having an issues. Thus one of us used the proton mail to send mail manually to everyone. And accidentally sent mass CC emails instead of BCC.
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28 sats \ 0 replies \ @mega_dreamer 27 Sep 2024
Predyx is subsidiary of MegaSats, INC.
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191 sats \ 1 reply \ @ek OP 27 Sep 2024
Oh, I think the official mail used BCC. I received two, the other one from proton.me didn't.
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161 sats \ 0 replies \ @mega_dreamer 27 Sep 2024
Yes, it was in the panic mode. We kicked off the bulk mail Azure Communication Service. But some how the code got stuck and became unresponsive due to a temp outage on Azure, but it went into their queue. We waited until 20-30 mins but did not receive any blast emails thus panicked and tried to send it manually via our mail provider i.e. proton and picked the wrong send from address and CC'd. Shame on us! We will be more mindful of this, a big lesson learnt.
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129 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined 26 Sep 2024
This looks pretty cool. I'll check it out later.
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100 sats \ 9 replies \ @grayruby 30 Sep 2024
@mega_dreamer got logged out and can't seem to log back in. Nothing happens when I enter username and password. I logged in with a lightning wallet to make separate account but nothing happens after I verify I am over 18.
Just an FYI.
I want to spend sats on the new sports markets. Let me in.
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40 sats \ 8 replies \ @mega_dreamer 30 Sep 2024
Looking into it.
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20 sats \ 7 replies \ @mega_dreamer 30 Sep 2024
Please try again now.
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0 sats \ 6 replies \ @grayruby 30 Sep 2024
I was able to create a new account but can't get into my original account. Maybe I am inputting the wrong password but it isn't notifying me the password is wrong.
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10 sats \ 5 replies \ @mega_dreamer 30 Sep 2024
is your original account "grayruby" ?
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0 sats \ 4 replies \ @grayruby 30 Sep 2024
yes
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100 sats \ 9 replies \ @grayruby 27 Sep 2024
Pretty nice but won't let me bet more than 100 sats on any outcome.
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50 sats \ 8 replies \ @mega_dreamer 27 Sep 2024
it might be a bug, which market are you trying to bet on?
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100 sats \ 7 replies \ @grayruby 27 Sep 2024
I tried to bet on a number of the US election ones. Sorry, I message you in another comment.
Let me try again and see if I can get you some more info.
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50 sats \ 4 replies \ @mega_dreamer 27 Sep 2024
yes I've been everywhere today. I created an issue tracker on GH, just in case I miss answering anyone: https://github.com/PREDYX/bug-tracker/issues
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100 sats \ 3 replies \ @grayruby 27 Sep 2024
All good. Really like the site. I am sure all the bug will be worked out. Can you create some additional sports markets?
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10 sats \ 2 replies \ @mega_dreamer 27 Sep 2024
yes I will create, please suggest. Right now we can only do Binomial (YES/NO)
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100 sats \ 1 reply \ @grayruby 27 Sep 2024
Just tried to bet on the "another debate" market. I tried 200 sats and it said "prediction not valid" and then when I exited out it said "we couldn't find the outcome"
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43 sats \ 0 replies \ @mega_dreamer 27 Sep 2024
Duly noted, It will be fixed!
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100 sats \ 0 replies \ @TNStacker 26 Sep 2024
💪🏾
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