I know they added a bunch of bells and whistles to it over the years, but I liked the simplicity of the initial model. The problem with simplicity is that it performs really poorly around major personnel changes.

> Elo model

Thanks, I've never heard of this! That's an interesting approach.


Are you familiar with the Elo model 538 used to use? The way they handled that is by moving each team partway back towards the mean from where they ended the previous season.

Undisciplined

Stacker_Sports

Degenerate Corner 860789

I will mention that I'm using 2023 end-of-season statistics to generate the odds (until I have at least a few weeks of 2024 data). So if the team went through significant change, the odds could be way off.