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87 sats \ 3 replies \ @ken 10 Sep \ parent \ on: Degenerate Corner 860789 Stacker_Sports
I will mention that I'm using 2023 end-of-season statistics to generate the odds (until I have at least a few weeks of 2024 data). So if the team went through significant change, the odds could be way off.
Are you familiar with the Elo model 538 used to use? The way they handled that is by moving each team partway back towards the mean from where they ended the previous season.
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I know they added a bunch of bells and whistles to it over the years, but I liked the simplicity of the initial model. The problem with simplicity is that it performs really poorly around major personnel changes.
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