pull down to refresh

21 sats \ 4 replies \ @grayruby 10 Sep \ parent \ on: Degenerate Corner 860789 Stacker_Sports
Interesting. You do have a few divergences from the odds.
write
preview
87 sats \ 3 replies \ @ken 10 Sep
I will mention that I'm using 2023 end-of-season statistics to generate the odds (until I have at least a few weeks of 2024 data). So if the team went through significant change, the odds could be way off.
reply
20 sats \ 2 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 10 Sep
Are you familiar with the Elo model 538 used to use? The way they handled that is by moving each team partway back towards the mean from where they ended the previous season.
reply
48 sats \ 1 reply \ @ken 11 Sep
Elo model
Thanks, I've never heard of this! That's an interesting approach.
reply
30 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 11 Sep
I know they added a bunch of bells and whistles to it over the years, but I liked the simplicity of the initial model. The problem with simplicity is that it performs really poorly around major personnel changes.
reply