It's definitely a risk. You have to be open about having been wrong and reflective about why you were wrong.

In your defense, these have been weird times and they did change the definition of recession in 2021 after the standard criteria had been met.

Bob Murphy is the main economist I go to on this stuff and his prediction was based on the yield curve inversion, which he emphasized usually leads a recession by 10-18 months. I think we're getting towards the long end of that, but it looks like that might hold up.