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30 sats \ 2 replies \ @kepford 22 Aug \ on: Federal Jobs Report Slices Total Jobs in New Revision econ
You know the economists I like have been predicting a recession since 2023. Personally I was saying it in 2020 because of the global shut downs and massive money expansion. I still believe it is coming. We may already be in it. But I also wonder how bad it will be. It may not be that bad. Just going off my gut and what I anicdotally see.
Are we risking becoming the boy who cried wolf? I agree with Tom Woods on that. The wolf did come. Recession will come, the longer we run like this the worse it will be. That's my gut feeling.
It's definitely a risk. You have to be open about having been wrong and reflective about why you were wrong.
In your defense, these have been weird times and they did change the definition of recession in 2021 after the standard criteria had been met.
Bob Murphy is the main economist I go to on this stuff and his prediction was based on the yield curve inversion, which he emphasized usually leads a recession by 10-18 months. I think we're getting towards the long end of that, but it looks like that might hold up.