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0 sats \ 6 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi OP 20 Aug \ parent \ on: Why Bitcoin is not being Widely used as a P2P means of Payment. conspiracy
Fiat systems do tend to collapse but they also tend to be replaced by a succession of fiat systems, often initially posturing to be backed by something like gold- the transition from the British Pound to the USD being the most recent example in a long long succession of trading empires who imposed their monetary hegemony alongside trading dominance because they could.
If as appears probable, the USD collapses then it would be probable that the Chinese CBDC Yuan would increase significantly in prominence and importance globally as there are very few if any nations today who can afford not to trade with China.
In fact this transition is already underway with Russia and Iran already denominating trade payments with China in Yuan.
The Chinese CBDC Yuan (DCEP) was designed to enable this international trade payments alternative to the current USD SWIFT Hegemony.
Unless Bitcoin massively increases its capacity to enable to international trade payments and at the same time gains much wider state and citizens acceptance as a MoE then it is extremely difficult to see Bitcoin winning against the USD and the Chinese CBDC Yuan, DCEP.
USD vs DCEP vs BTC
Here's a question I have...
For people to 'spend' bitcoin they have to/should likely believe that its value will not substantially increase. If it's 'going up' why spend it when there are alternatives?
So what is a fair, reasonable market cap for bitcoin? Right now it's about 1.2 ish trillion, or about .15% of 800 trillion (global wealth). So it's a fraction of a percentage of global wealth... so is that fair would that make sense? If btc is to be a good SoV, no GREAT SoV before being a good MoE... with a relatively stable value then the market cap needs to be bigger - MUCH bigger. Like maybe instead of .15% of global wealth then like maybe 3% at a minimum of all global wealth. Maybe even more.
3% is 20x the current .15%. So at 3% of global assets... (which is reasonable for a high-quality SoV like Bitcoin) this puts bitcoin at around 1.2 million $$$ for a fair price, or around 24 trillion market cap at 3% global SoV. That's at 3%. Some form of 'hyperbitcoinization' if it ever were to happen would make Bitcoin many multiples of that. So yes that gells in my opinion with Stacker News - there just isn't enough adoption yet.
Yes it's cliche... but logically speaking at 60k the folks here on SN are REALLY really early in the acceptance of Bitcoin as a SoV. If bitcoin were to become a meaningful SoV relative to other assets, ie just 3%, then it would be considerably more expensive, shockingly so actually. Crazy
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If people genuinely believe Bitcoins value will increase more than any other currency then they would logically put all their cash into Bitcoin.
But currently that is not practical because to spend Bitcoin is nigh on impossible and so almost everyone still maintains a fiat cash 'float' for use as MoE.
This is the case because MoE in Bitcoin has IMO been deliberately and slyly obstructed- preserving the state imposed banker orchestrated monopoly it is.
The fiat brokers know that if they can assign Bitcoin into a role as a speculative commodity SoV, they have won half the battle to retain their fiat monetary hegemony.
Once Bitcoin is securely ring fenced as a relatively harmless speculative commodity SoV, preferably in ETF format, and widely tracked via KYC, it is then just a small additional step to ban private custody- Game Over.
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Not likely! Transferred most of my liquid savings into Sats over the year after discovering Bitcoin. To hold my savings directly and avoid the parasitic intermediaries that are the banks- Never regretted that decision and tbh surprised and amazed how Bitcoin has survived and thrived and my savings have multiplied...will want to stick with Sats SoV integrity as savings no matter what the fiat parasites do to try to stop it or contain it...and that is why I am discussing it-just want to be able to spend as well as save in the currency free of debasement.
Acknowledging the ruthlessness and determination of the most powerful wealthy cartel on the planet (the fiat debt slavery bankers cartel) does not mean I must submit to it. Instead, denying their proven track record of market manipulating price fixing power broking nepotism and anti competitive behaviour is to fail to recognise the nature of the problem and in itself a form of submission more likely to lead to failure than acknowledging it and facing up to it.
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What gives me fear is the number of people who think it is inevitable and we can just sit back and watch Bitcoin triumph - that seems naive in view of known history around fiat money.
Bitcoin provides an alternative to Fiat money and by its design contrasts and highlights the flaws inherent in Fiat...
But if enough people do not both recognise this and act on it there is no guarantee Bitcoin will eventually dominate- that is the point of my post.
To raise the issues and alert the community to the scale of sly obstruction that has already occurred and its agenda to divert Bitcoin into relatively harmless perception and use as a commodity rather than a P2P MoE.
The agenda (including KYC data and ever increasing institutional custody could ultimately provide pretext and the ability to impose a ban on private custody.
Let's learn from history E.O. 6102!
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